Economists at Danske Bank remain medium-term bearish on the Swedish Krona (SEK).
Tactical downside vs. strategic upside
While we have remained strategically bullish on EUR/SEK, our tactical view has shifted over the year with e.g. near-term bullish view on SEK this autumn.
The SEK rebound could run a bit further with positive risk sentiment and broad-based USD weakness as the Fed is set to move slightly earlier than peers. However, the cyclical backdrop remains a challenge for the SEK amid a bleak global growth outlook, a Swedish economy characterized by vulnerable households, a Riksbank that will not lag the ECB in the easing cycle and a choppy environment for global equities.
The structural flows picture is still a medium-term headwind for the SEK. Should the global economy pick up more than expected in 2024, this could lend support to the SEK over the medium-term.
On balance, we lower the forecast trajectory slightly over all horizons.
EUR/SEK Forecast: 11.20 (1M), 11.40 (3M), 11.60 (6M), 11.60 (12M)
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