Drugmaker
Eli Lilly
will give investors a first glimpse at sales figures for Zepbound, its new obesity medicine, on Tuesday when it releases its fourth-quarter earnings results.
Zepbound hit pharmacies in early December and analysts expect $75 million in sales for the quarter, according to FactSet. Sales of Mounjaro, the diabetes treatment approved in 2022 that is the same medicine as Zepbound, are expected to have hit $1.7 billion for the quarter, up from $279 million for the same quarter in 2022.
Analysts expect the company to report total sales of $8.9 billion for the fourth quarter of 2024, and earnings of $2.30 per share, according to FactSet.
Lilly shares have been on a tear, due largely to excitement over the sales potential of Zepbound and Mounjaro. The stock is up 21% in 2024, and 109% over the past 12 months.
The stock’s trajectory has been starkly different than the trajectories of its big pharma peers, many of which reported earnings results last week. Shares of companies like
Pfizer
are seeking to recover after a dismal performance in 2023 as they face swathes of patent expirations.
According to FactSet, analysts expect Lilly’s earnings to begin to explode this year, climbing to $30.26 per share in 2028 from $6.23 per share in 2023.
Both Lilly and its competitor
Novo Nordisk,
which makes Ozempic and Wegovy, have flagged manufacturing capacity for the weight loss and diabetes medicines as issues. On Monday, Novo announced an $11 billion plan to acquire three facilities used in its manufacturing process as part of a larger $16.5 billion deal by which Novo’s controlling shareholder plans to acquire the contract manufacturer
Catalent.
Asked at a January investor conference when capacity would no longer be “the rate limiter” for drugs of Zepbound’s category, Lilly CEO David Ricks said, “not anytime soon.”
“I don’t say that in a negative way,” Ricks added. “I think that speaks to the incredible opportunity here.”
Lilly is seeking coverage of Zepbound from insurers, which poses a significant challenge given the potential costs involved. In January, Lilly said it opposed the use of Mounjaro and Zepbound for “cosmetic weight loss.”
The company has scheduled an investor call for 10 a.m. Eastern on Tuesday.
Write to Josh Nathan-Kazis at [email protected]
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