The US Dollar Index (DXY) has inched higher as market pricing of Fed easing in 2024 has been downgraded. Economists at Société Générale analyze Greenback’s outlook.
The Fed is unlikely to ease dramatically
The US economy appears to have escaped a recession, and while that won’t stand in the way of monetary policy easing in 2024, it means that the Fed is unlikely to ease dramatically, reducing downward pressure on the USD.
Irrespective of the actual policies that might be adopted by Trump or Biden presidencies (not to mention the possibility that one or the other may not be on the ballot come November), increased uncertainty and increased tail risks will probably be USD supportive.
DXY looks set to trade in a 100.00-110.00 range.
Read the full article here