- S&P Global PMIs are expected to indicate business activity in the US continued to expand in February.
- Manufacturing and Services output seen advancing at a moderate pace.
- EUR/USD stuck around 1.0800, signs of buyers losing interest.
S&P Global will release the flash estimates of the United States (US) Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) on Thursday, a survey that measures business activity throughout the month. The report is divided into services and manufacturing output and compiled in a final figure, the Composite PMI.
The economic activity in the US private sector expanded at a modest pace in January, with the S&P Global Composite PMI reaching 52.0, following a bounce in manufacturing output to 50.7. At the same time, the services index reached 52.5.
Manufacturing has been lagging behind, although the latest reading has been quite encouraging, as it showed improvement in the sector’s health for the first time since April 2023. The official report notes: “Overall growth was supported by a return to expansion in new orders and a slower contraction in output. Production was reportedly hampered, however, by a renewed decline in supplier performance and longer input deliveries. Greater transportation costs pushed input prices higher on the month, with cost inflation hitting a nine-month high. In response, firms hiked their selling prices at the fastest rate since April 2023.”
The US economy is in expansion mode, which means the country will likely dodge a recession and even a soft landing. But this could come at the cost of higher inflation, which may prompt the Federal Reserve (Fed) into additional tightening. In such a case, higher rates will increase the risk of an economic setback.
The US Fed paused monetary tightening in the last quarter of 2023, and market participants rushed to price in upcoming rate cuts. The odds centered in March as policymakers continued to deliver the “higher-for-longer” message. However, the late January Fed monetary policy meeting and hotter-than-anticipated inflation in January convinced investors that policymakers won’t rush into loosening the monetary policy. At the time being, the first rate cut is more likely to take place in June.
What to expect from the next S&P Global PMI report?
The February S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is foreseen at 50.5, ticking modestly lower from the previous 50.7, although holding within expansionary levels. The same situation is expected around services output, as the index is expected at 52.0, easing from 52.5 in January.
As long as the readings remain above 50.0, the impact of a decline should be limited. However, a slump below the line that separates expansion and contraction could revive speculation of a Fed rate cut amid renewed recession-related concerns. That could spur optimism for risk assets and weigh on the US Dollar.
On the contrary, stronger-than-anticipated figures will give the Fed more time to hold rates unchanged and assess more data before deciding on a monetary policy change.
When will February flash US S&P Global PMIs be released and how could they affect EUR/USD?
The S&P Global PMI report will be released this Thursday at 14:45 GMT. Ahead of the event, the US Dollar has been trimming panic-related gains, with EUR/USD currently trading at around 1.0800. The pair collapsed to 1.0694 in mid-February following the release of the January US Consumer Price Index (CPI), which surpassed market expectations, but as market players assumed that a Fed’s rate cut would be more likely for June, the sentiment began improving.
Tepid European data, however, has limited the bullish potential of the Euro, which anyway advanced against its American rival.
Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, said: “The EUR/USD pair has reached a three-week peak at 1.0839, but it is clear that selling around the 1.0800 level is strong, as gains beyond it have been quickly reverted in the last two weeks. Market players are waiting for a solid catalyst that the market is failing to provide.” Furthermore, she adds: “The ongoing recovery seems corrective. EUR/USD hovers around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.1139-1.0694 decline at 1.0799. The next Fibonacci resistance level falls at 1.0864, a level the pair needs to reconquer to encourage buyers.”
Bednarik also notes: “Technical readings in the daily chart support the corrective case, and even suggest the pair may resume its slide in the near term. Technical indicators are retreating after failing to overcome their midlines, heading south with uneven strength. Also, the pair is battling around the converging 20 and 100 Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), which stand alongside the aforementioned Fibonacci level. Support comes at 1.0770 and 1.0720, with a break below the latter opening the door for a fresh 2024 low.”
Economic Indicator
United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
The S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the US manufacturing sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies from the manufacturing sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity in the manufacturing sector is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD.
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Next release: 02/21/2024 14:45:00 GMT
Frequency: Monthly
Source: S&P Global
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
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