- Gold price climbs above $2,460 as US bond yields and the US Dollar face pressure ahead of the US NFP for July.
- The Fed appears comfortable with market speculation for interest rate cuts in September.
- Higher jobless claims and lower Unit Labor Costs point to a slowdown in US labor demand.
Gold price (XAU/USD) exhibits sheer strength in Friday’s European session ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The official Employment data will indicate the current status of the labor market, which will influence market speculation for a US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September.
The US NFP report is expected to show that 175K new workers were hired in July, a decrease from the previous addition of 206K. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain steady at 4.1%.
Investors will also focus on the Average Hourly Earnings data, a key measure of wage growth that fuels consumer spending and eventually drives price pressures. Annually, the wage growth measure is estimated to have decelerated to 3.7% from the prior reading of 3.9%, with the monthly figure growing steadily by 0.3%. Softer-than-expected wage growth data will diminish fears of persistent inflation, which will strengthen Fed rate-cut prospects. On the contrary, stubborn numbers would weaken them.
Meanwhile, deepening risks of an all-out war between Iran and Israel have improved the Gold’s safe-haven appeal. Iran vows to retaliate against the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh by an Israeli air strike in Tehran.
Daily digest market movers: Gold price surges as US yields slumps in countdown to US NFP
- Gold price rises further to near $2,470 in Friday’s European session. The precious metal aims to recapture all-time highs above $2,480 as the US bond yields and the US Dollar (USD) have weakened.10-year US Treasury yields post a fresh six-month low near 3.95%, as speculation for the Federal Reserve to begin reducing interest rates in September appears to be certain. Lower yields on interest-bearing assets reduce the opportunity cost of holding an investment in non-yielding assets, such as Gold. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, edges lower to near 104.25.
- The expectations for the Fed to pivot to policy normalization in September were prompted after Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered a dovish guidance on interest rates. On Wednesday, the Fed left interest rates steady in the range of 5.25%-5.50% but said that rate cuts would be on the table in September if inflation declines more or less in line with expectations, growth remains reasonably strong, and the labor market remains consistent with current conditions.
- Also, weak United States (US) ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for July, the highest Initial Jobless Claims in 11 months for the week ending July 26, and lower preliminary Q2 Unit Labor Costs have spurted upside risks to a slowdown in the economy and labor demand.
- The PMI report showed that activity in the manufacturing sector contracted at a faster pace to 46.8. Individuals claiming jobless benefits for the first time were higher at 249K than estimates of 236K and the former release of 235K. Unit Labor Costs, a key measure of total cost borne by employers for onboarding workers, grew at a very slower pace of 0.9% from expectations of 1.8% and the prior release of 3.8%.
US Dollar Price Today:
US Dollar PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.24% | 0.02% | -0.24% | 0.01% | -0.15% | 0.10% | -0.18% | |
| EUR | 0.24% | 0.25% | 0.03% | 0.23% | 0.10% | 0.32% | 0.06% | |
| GBP | -0.02% | -0.25% | -0.25% | -0.02% | -0.18% | 0.09% | -0.17% | |
| JPY | 0.24% | -0.03% | 0.25% | 0.26% | 0.09% | 0.33% | 0.08% | |
| CAD | -0.01% | -0.23% | 0.02% | -0.26% | -0.16% | 0.10% | -0.16% | |
| AUD | 0.15% | -0.10% | 0.18% | -0.09% | 0.16% | 0.26% | -0.01% | |
| NZD | -0.10% | -0.32% | -0.09% | -0.33% | -0.10% | -0.26% | -0.24% | |
| CHF | 0.18% | -0.06% | 0.17% | -0.08% | 0.16% | 0.01% | 0.24% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Technical Analysis: Gold price posts fresh two-week high near $2,470
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Gold price trades in a channel pattern on a daily timeframe, which is slightly rising but broadly exhibited a sideways performance for more than three months. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $2,370 continues to provide support to the Gold price bulls.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) moves higher to near 60.00. If the RSI climbs above that level, the momentum will shift to the upside.
A fresh upside would appear if the Gold price breaks above its all-time high of $2,483.75, which will send it into unchartered territory.
On the downside, the upward-sloping trendline at $2,225, plotted from the October 6 low near $1,810.50, will be a major support in the longer term.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
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