Stock market expert compares 2024 election to tumultuous time when the challenger prevailed over incumbent

Wall Street is becoming increasingly convinced former President Trump will emerge the victor from next week’s long-anticipated election.

Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) shares continue to surge, making a comeback from a low in September, but what other signs point to that conclusion?

CFRA Research chief investment strategist Sam Stovall weighed in on Tuesday, telling FOX Business’ Charles Payne the feel of this election cycle is abnormal, reminiscent of another tumultuous time when the challenger prevailed over the incumbent.

“It does [seem different this year], because we’re up more than 5% since July 31st and, whenever the market has been higher in that three-month period – July 31 through October 31– the incumbent person or party has been reelected 82% of the time,” he surmised.

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“One of those times in which it was not successful was 1968, and I have to say that this election sort of reminds me of ’68 when LBJ stepped aside. Hubert Humphrey stepped in. The public was not happy with an unpopular war in Vietnam the way, today, questions are raised about inflation and immigration. We had a Chicago [Democratic] convention. We also had the Fed cut interest rates before the election, but it didn’t seem to matter. The replacement ended up winning rather than the incumbent.”

Other commentators during the highly-contentious and erratic election season have drawn similar comparisons between the 1968 and 2024 races, each commonly grounded on President Biden’s and LBJ’s decisions to not seek reelection. 

Bloomberg’s MLIV pulse survey on the market outlook, meanwhile, indicates 38% of those surveyed believe a Trump victory would “accelerate” the current market rally, compared to 13% should Vice President Harris win.

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A larger majority believed the market would either stay the same, slow, or turn into losses if Harris wins, however.

With less than one week left until voters head to the polls to make their final decisions, former President Trump and Vice President Harris are deadlocked in the polls, with the winner expected to walk away with a razor-thin victory.

All eyes currently linger on a set of key swing states – Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona – assuming that the narrow victory for either candidate will boil down to these states.