Could tonight deliver a populist surprise, part II? That’s the subject of the riff. As we talked about last night, all the ace pollsters could be missing a number of built-in advantages for former President Donald Trump: a big voter registration shift favoring Republicans in more than thirty states, and a big GOP early voting turnout. Both are completely unlike 2020.
Here’s a quick example from the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania. In 2020, Democrats had a 1.1 million advantage in early voting ballot. This year, that margin has been cut down to only 400,000. Staying in Pennsylvania, party registration favored Democrats by 1.2 million during the Obama years and 686,000 in 2020. Now, in 2024, that registration margin has been cut down to only 281,000.
INFLATION RISES 2.4% IN SEPTEMBER, ABOVE EXPECTATIONS
What’s more, the GOP is basically keeping its gains. In recent years, 203,000 Democrats switched to the Republican column, but only 97,000 Republicans switched to the Democratic column. Big hat-tip to James Freeman’s Wall Street Journal column. So, have pollsters picked up on this? Kinda don’t think so.
The Democratic slump in early voting spans across all the swing states. The Republican advantage in registration covers over thirty states throughout the country. Not only are these trends a function of better GOP political management of the election machinery, but they also reflect how much Mr. Trump has widened his working-class coalition.
It’s a multi-racial populist coalition, including Whites, Hispanics, Blacks, Asians, young people, union members, and others and one key reason for this broader populist coalition, in particular, is the economy.
Inside the economy, let’s cut to the chase. First, the average annual inflation rate under former President Trump was only 1.9%. Under Biden-Harris, it was 6.4% annually with a 9% peak.
Second, the key metric is take-home pay. Ronald Reagan made this famous 40 years ago. Excluding COVID, median incomes under Trump for Black Americans increased nearly $5,000 – that’s double the gain under Biden-Harris. For Hispanics, take-home pay under Trump increased about 7 times more than under Biden-Harris. Asian families saw take-home pay go up ten times more under Trump than under Biden-Harris. Overall, for Americans all stripes, median family income surged by $7,690 under Mr. Trump. That’s about 7 times more than the meager $1,050 they saw under Biden-Harris.
Big hat-tip to Art Laffer for his op-ed in today’s New York Post. Another point, in three years under President Trump, 1.6 million Hispanic Americans, 1.1 million Black Americans, and 450,000 Asian Americans were lifted out of poverty. Overall, 6.6 million Americans were lifted out of poverty. The total for Biden-Harris? Just 760,000.
In other words, Trump not only significantly increased take-home pay, but he reduced poverty nearly nine fold. This is one key reason why minority groups have moved into the Trump working-folk coalition. I don’t think even the best pollsters have taken account of all of this.
Mr. Trump on the campaign trail talks about a new “golden age” for all Americans on the economy. You know he’s got a track record on this. “Are you better off than you were four years ago?,” he asks and I haven’t even mentioned the border catastrophe, the related crime wave, the revolt against woke, and the collapse in foreign policy, but on all of it – Mr. Trump says Kamala broke it and he will fix it.
Tonight’s the night. If you haven’t already, everybody should go out and vote. Heading down to the last few hours, personally, I’d rather be in Mr. Trump’s shoes. That’s the riff.
This article is adapted from Larry Kudlow’s opening commentary on the Nov. 5, 2024, edition of “Kudlow.”
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