Coverage:
Color:
What we’ve got so far:
Presidential: Trump Leads
Harris has won California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine’s District 1, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska’s District 2, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia and Washington.
Trump has won Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming, and Pennsylvania.
Of the seven critical battleground states, three have been called and both for Trump – Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania – and he is leading in the others.
Trump leads strongly in PA…
Republicans won control of the US Senate (flipping Ohio and West Virginia), giving them powerful leverage in high-stakes tax and spending battles ahead.
Key markets are positioning for a Trump victory.
The dollar strengthened, although it’s losing steam a bit now as traders take profits, and crude, copper and soybeans are softening.
Bitcoin (record highs), Ether and Dogecoin have all rallied.
The shift to Trump from 2020 is very broad…
Prediction markets shifting strongly pro-Trump:
House: Republicans Lead
Top Harris aide Cedric Richmond tells attendees at the campaign’s gathering that the vice president won’t speak tonight.
“We will continue overnight to fight to make sure that every vote is counted, that every voice has spoken, so you won’t hear from the Vice President tonight but you will hear from her tomorrow. She will be back here tomorrow,” Richmond said.
The joy is gone😘
— Valentina Gomez (@ValentinaForUSA) November 6, 2024
2016 deja vu all over again, anyone?
* * *
What to watch for:
It’s all about the swing states – most notably Pennsylvania, where Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are virtually tied according to polls – so who actually knows.
1/ Pennsylvania is key for Harris to win.
2/ The best early indications for the presidential race might come from North Carolina and Georgia (key for Trump to win).
3/ Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are likely to be the most important results to the presidential outcome but will take longer.
4/ Arizona and Nevada are likely to take the longest of the swing states.
The earliest results in most states will likely be dominated by early votes and mail-in ballots, with some states reporting these separately at the start of election night reporting, while others will report with partial election-day results, according to Goldman.
-
For Harris, most obvious path is to win Michigan (15), Pennsylvania (19), and Wisconsin (10), netting the bare majority 270 electoral votes.
-
For Trump, the most obvious path is to win the Sunbelt states of Arizona (11), Georgia (16), and North Carolina (16) and one of the Rust Belt states (any would be worth enough to reach 270).
In 2020 and 2022, early voting resulted in a shift to Democrats, however this year may be different – and might even slightly lean Republican, as early voting trends appear much more even based on party than in the past.
In larger counties, reporting is expected to take days vs. smaller counties.
Here’s Goldman Sachs’ expectations of how the night goes:
7pm ET
• 28 electoral votes lean toward Trump: Indiana, Kentucky and South Carolina
• 16 electoral votes lean toward Harris: Virginia and Vermont
• 16 toss-up votes: Georgia (16). In 2020, the AP first reported Georgia results at 7:20 p.m. ET7.30pm ET
• 21 electoral votes lean toward Trump: Ohio and West Virginia
• 16 toss-up votes: North Carolina (16). In 2020, the AP first reported results at 7:42 p.m. ET8.00pm ET
• 74 electoral votes lean toward Trump: Oklahoma, Missouri, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District
• 78 electoral votes lean toward Harris: Illinois, Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland and Washington, DC
• 19 toss-up votes: Pennsylvania (19). In 2020, the AP first reported results at 8:09 p.m. ET8.30pm ET
• Polls close in Arkansas, which has 6 electoral votes and is likely to support Trump. Polls will now be closed in half the states.9.00pm ET
• 73 electoral votes lean toward Trump, including Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas, Texas and Louisiana
• 54 electoral votes lean toward Harris, including New Mexico, Colorado, Minnesota, New York and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District
• 36 toss-up votes: Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan (11, 10, 15, respectively)
In 2020, the AP first reported Michigan results at 8:08 p.m. ET (note Michigan runs two time zones; most of the state close at 8pmET, with rest at 9pm ET)
In 2020, the AP first reported Wisconsin results at 9:07 p.m. ET
In 2020, the AP first reported Arizona results at 10:02 p.m. ET10.00pm ET
• 10 electoral votes lean toward Trump, including Utah and Montana
• 6 toss-up votes: Nevada (6)
In 2020, the AP first reported Nevada results at 11:41 p.m. ET11.00pm ET
• 4 electoral votes lean toward Trump: Idaho
• 74 electoral votes lean toward Harris, including California, Oregon and WashingtonMidnight to 1am ET
• 3 electoral votes lean toward Trump in Alaska
• 4 electoral votes lean toward Harris votes in Hawaii
Here’s when previous presidential election results were called:
According to prediction markets, a Republican sweep is the most likely outcome, followed by a divided Democrat win.
In the House, the generic ballot shows a much tighter race than we had a few weeks ago – an is in line with the notion that the party that wins the White House usually carries the House as well.
Earliest indications will come from Florida (13th District), Virginia (2nd and 7th Districts) and North Carolina (1st District), where according to Goldman, trends could become clear by 9-10pm ET. It may take until 11pm – midnight ET before further House races come into focus.
In the Senate, Republicans continue to maintain an advantage in both polling and prediction markets implying that two Democratic seats will likely flip, and a third (Ohio) has a slight chance of flipping to the Republicans, giving them either 51 or 52 seats.
That Ohio senate tossup should be decided tonight – as the state typically reports fairly quickly. The first vote counts should roll in around 8pm ET, and around half of the vote reported before 9:30pm, according to Goldman. If R’s win the seat, it would take the possibility of a Democratic sweep off the table.
Montana Senate results will likely take longer, as polls close around 10pm ET, and the state usually takes longer to count, reporting only 1/4 of its vote by midnight, and 1/2 by 2am ET.
Stay tuned for updates…
Loading…
Read the full article here