- Gold price struggles to gain any meaningful traction and remains confined in a narrow range.
- Expectations for a less dovish Fed and elevated US bond yields cap the non-yielding XAU/USD.
- Geopolitical risks lend support to the safe-haven precious metal ahead of the FOMC meeting.
Gold price (XAU/USD) edges higher during the Asian session on Tuesday, though it lacks follow-through and remains close to a one-week low touched the previous day. Traders seem reluctant and opt to wait for the outcome of a two-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday before placing fresh directional bets around the non-yielding yellow metal. The focus will be on the accompanying policy statement, especially the so-called dot plot, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the post-meeting press conference. Investors will look for cues about the future rate-cut path, which will drive the US Dollar (USD) and provide some meaningful impetus to the non-yielding yellow metal.
Heading into the key event risk, persistent geopolitical tensions and concerns about US President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff plans lend some support to the safe-haven Gold price. Meanwhile, the prospects for a less dovish Fed, along with expectations that Trump’s policies may lead to an increase in government borrowing, remain supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields. Apart from this, a positive risk tone might cap the XAU/USD, warranting caution before confirming that the recent pullback from over a one-month high touched last week has run its course.
Gold price traders opt to wait for more cues about the Fed’s rate cut before placing directional bets
- Data released on Monday showed that a big part of the US economy expanded at the fastest pace in more than three years. In fact, the S&P Global flash US Services Purchase Managers Index (PMI) rose from 56.1 to 58.5 in December – the highest level in 38 months.
- Furthermore, the Composite PMI surged from 54.9 in November to 56.6, or a 33-month high. This overshadowed a fall in the flash US Manufacturing PMI to a three-month low of 48.3 in December and reaffirmed market expectations for a less dovish Federal Reserve.
- Investors seem convinced that US President-elect Donald Trump’s policies may exert upward pressure on inflation and force the Fed to pause its rate-cutting cycle. This lifted the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond to its highest level since November 22.
- According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, markets have fully priced in that the Fed will deliver a 25-basis-points rate cut on Wednesday. This keeps the US Dollar bulls on the defensive and offers support to the XAU/USD through the Asian session on Tuesday.
- The US hit North Korea and Russia on Monday with new sanctions that the Treasury Department said targeted Pyongyang’s financial activities and military support to Moscow. Israel is likely to respond to yet another ballistic missile attack by Yemen’s Houthis.
- Traders now look forward to the release of the US monthly Retail Sales figures for short-term opportunities later during the North American session. The focus, however, will remain glued to the outcome of the highly-anticipated FOMC policy meeting on Wednesday.
Gold price needs to weaken below the one-week low touched on Monday for bears to seize control
From a technical perspective, the $2,644-2,643 area, or a one-week low touched on Monday, now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the $2,625 region. This is closely followed by the monthly trough, around the $2,614 zone, and the $2,600 mark, which if broken decisively will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and pave the way for some meaningful depreciating move for the Gold price.
On the flip side, the $2,664-2,666 region, or the overnight swing high, might continue to act as an immediate strong barrier ahead of the $2,677 area. A sustained strength beyond the latter should allow the Gold price to reclaim the $2,700 round figure. The subsequent move up could extend further towards the monthly swing high, around the $2,726 zone, above which the XAU/USD is likely to resume its upward trajectory.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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