- The Australian Dollar declines amid market caution ahead of Fed policy decision.
- The Aussie Dollar receives downward pressure from the increased likelihood of the RBA delivering rate cuts sooner.
- US Federal Reserve is widely expected to deliver a 25 basis point rate cut on Wednesday.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its losses for the second successive session against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday. Traders are bracing for a potential 25 basis point rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) later in the North American session.
The AUD also faces challenges as traders are increasing their bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will cut interest rates sooner and more significantly than initially expected. However, future decisions will be data-driven, with evolving risk assessments guiding the RBA’s approach.
The US Dollar (USD) remains solid due to market caution ahead of the Fed decision. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are now almost fully pricing in a quarter basis point cut at the Fed’s December meeting. Additionally, traders will closely monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference and Summary of Economic Projections (dot-plot) after the meeting.
US Census Bureau reported on Tuesday that US Retail Sales rose 0.7% MoM in November, compared to the 0.5% prior increase. Meanwhile, the Retail Sales Control Group increased 0.4% from the previous decline of 0.1%.
Australian Dollar remains subdued amid market caution ahead of the Fed’s decision
- Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence fell 2% to 92.8 points in December, reversing two months of positive momentum. The index increased 5.3% in November. Traders will likely observe US retail sales data for November, which is scheduled to be released later in the North American session.
- Reuters cited two sources on Tuesday that China is set to target economic growth of around 5% in 2025. This decision follows a meeting among top Chinese officials at the Central Economic Work Conference last week. The growth target remains the same as this year, which China is expected to achieve.
- China’s foreign exchange regulator, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), reported a net outflow of $45.7 billion from China’s capital markets in November. Cross-border portfolio investment receipts totaled $188.9 billion, while payments reached $234.6 billion, resulting in the largest monthly deficit on record for this category.
- In the United States, the preliminary S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 56.6 in December, from 54.9 prior. Meanwhile, the Services PMI improved to 58.5 from 56.1. The Manufacturing PMI declined to 48.3 in December, from the previous 49.7 reading.
- Chinese authorities, led by President Xi Jinping, have pledged to raise the fiscal deficit target next year, shifting policy focus to consumption to boost the economy amid looming 10% US tariffs threatening exports. The lack of concrete details on fiscal support has put downward pressure on the AUD, given China’s status as Australia’s largest trading partner.
- China’s Retail Sales (YoY) rose 3.0% in November, against its expected 4.6% and previous 4.8% readings. Meanwhile, annual Industrial Production increased by 5.4%, exceeding the market consensus of a 5.3% rise.
Australian Dollar falls toward 0.6300 after breaking yearly lows
AUD/USD trades near 0.6330 on Wednesday. Analysis of a daily chart suggests a prevailing bearish bias as the pair is confined within a descending channel pattern. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers slightly above the 30 level, indicating sustained bearish momentum is active. However, a fall below the 30 mark would suggest an oversold situation and a potential for an upward correction.
On the downside, the AUD/USD pair has successfully broken below the yearly low of 0.6348, which may put downward pressure on it to navigate the descending channel’s lower boundary around the 0.6150 level.
The AUD/USD pair may find its initial resistance around the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6373, followed by the 14-day EMA at 0.6397, aligned with the descending channel’s upper boundary. A decisive breakout above this channel could drive the pair toward the eight-week high of 0.6687.
AUD/USD: Daily Chart
Australian Dollar PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Euro.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.07% | 0.03% | 0.15% | 0.03% | 0.12% | 0.10% | -0.00% | |
| EUR | 0.07% | 0.10% | 0.23% | 0.10% | 0.18% | 0.17% | 0.07% | |
| GBP | -0.03% | -0.10% | 0.12% | 0.00% | 0.09% | 0.07% | -0.02% | |
| JPY | -0.15% | -0.23% | -0.12% | -0.13% | -0.04% | -0.07% | -0.15% | |
| CAD | -0.03% | -0.10% | -0.00% | 0.13% | 0.09% | 0.06% | -0.03% | |
| AUD | -0.12% | -0.18% | -0.09% | 0.04% | -0.09% | -0.02% | -0.11% | |
| NZD | -0.10% | -0.17% | -0.07% | 0.07% | -0.06% | 0.02% | -0.09% | |
| CHF | 0.00% | -0.07% | 0.02% | 0.15% | 0.03% | 0.11% | 0.09% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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