- The Mexican Peso treads water near the 20.00 area as the US Dollar steadies ahead of the Fed decision on interest rates.
- Strong US economic data has boosted speculation that the Fed could scale back rate cut projections for 2025.
- Technically, the USD/MXN pair remains bearish but needs an extra boost to breach the 20.00 level.
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is practically flat on Wednesday, with US Dollar Index (DXY) steady near recent highs as investors bid their time ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision.
Investors are nearly fully pricing a 25 basis points (bps) interest-rate cut later on Wednesday. Nevertheless, the strong US economy and the higher inflationary pressures might prompt policymakers to raise their interest rate projections for 2025.
This sentiment has been boosting US yields and the US Dollar (USD) higher since last week, capping the near-term rally of the Mexican Peso below the 20.00 round level.
Beyond that, Mexican macroeconomic data have failed to cheer MXN buyers. Inflation eased beyond expectations in November, industrial output deteriorated and retail consumption dropped against expectations in October. These figures pave the path for a further rate cut by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) on Thursday.
Fears of a hawkish Fed underpin the US Dollar
- The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades with moderate gains for the second consecutive day on Wednesday as investors brace for a “hawkish cut” by the Fed later today.
- US Treasury yields remain steady at one-month highs above 4.40%, buoyed by market expectations of fewer rate cuts in 2025.
- On Tuesday, US retail consumption increased by 0.7%, beyond expectations of a 0.5% increment, boosted by increasing vehicle and online sales
- These figures come after an unexpected improvement in US services sectors’ activity. The US preliminary Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) recorded its best performance in more than three years, with the PMI increasing to 58.5 from 56.1 in November and against expectations of a moderate slowdown to 55.7.
- Despite the recent upbeat US data, investors remain fully confident that the Fed will cut rates on Wednesday. The CME FedWatch tool shows a 95% chance of a 25 bps interest cut later today, with more than a 70% chance of less than three cuts during 2025.
- In Mexico, Retail Sales dropped unexpectedly by 0.3% in October, against expectations of a 0.2% increase. Retail Consumption moderated its yearly decline to 1.2% from 1.5% in the previous month against expectations of a 1.6% fall.
- A survey from Banxico published this week reveals that economic experts see prices growing at a 4.37% pace in 2024, down from the 4.42% inflation rate seen in November, while the expectations for 2025 remain steady at 3.80%.
- The country’s GDP is expected to grow by 1.60% in 2024, up from the previous 1.53%. However, expectations for 2025 have been downwardly revised to 1.12% from previous estimations of 1.20%, due to mainly the impact of tariffs from the US.
US Dollar PRICE This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.03% | -0.79% | -0.05% | 0.62% | 0.73% | 0.62% | 0.05% | |
| EUR | -0.03% | -0.76% | 0.02% | 0.66% | 0.88% | 0.66% | 0.08% | |
| GBP | 0.79% | 0.76% | 0.66% | 1.43% | 1.66% | 1.42% | 0.83% | |
| JPY | 0.05% | -0.02% | -0.66% | 0.65% | 0.78% | 0.68% | 0.15% | |
| CAD | -0.62% | -0.66% | -1.43% | -0.65% | 0.17% | -0.01% | -0.60% | |
| AUD | -0.73% | -0.88% | -1.66% | -0.78% | -0.17% | -0.21% | -0.82% | |
| NZD | -0.62% | -0.66% | -1.42% | -0.68% | 0.00% | 0.21% | -0.60% | |
| CHF | -0.05% | -0.08% | -0.83% | -0.15% | 0.60% | 0.82% | 0.60% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Mexican Peso technical outlook: USD/MXN hovers above the 20.00 support area
USD/MXN is trading lower from its late November highs near 20.80, but the pair is struggling to find acceptance below the 20.00 psychological level.
Price action remains contained between the mentioned 20.00 level and 20.30 on the upside, awaiting the Fed later on Wednesday and Banxico’s decision on Thursday.
On the upside, above 20.30, the next target would be the December 2 high at 20.60 and November’s peak at around 20.80. Below 20.00, bears would be focusing on the October 24 and 25 lows and the November 8 low at 19.75.
USD/MXN 4-Hour Chart
Mexican Peso FAQs
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.
The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.
Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.
As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
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