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The hype around Greenland and its abundance of minerals has long been there. The vast Arctic island, hoping for independence from colonial ruler Denmark, has a simple pitch: it has big deposits of many of the metals and rare earths for which the west is currently dependent on China. US president-elect Donald Trump is a would-be buyer.
The only problem is that after decades of activity, there is precious little to show for it. It has one open mine — producing anorthosite, mostly used in fibreglass — which is lossmaking.
For all the heat and light produced by Trump’s previous proposal to buy Greenland in 2019, when authorities in Nuuk declared they were open to American business, only one US company holds an exploration licence on the island, compared with 23 each from Canada and the UK. Climate change may be heating up Greenland rapidly, but access to many mining areas remains tricky. “The past four years have been very difficult for mining work in Greenland,” says Roderick McIllree, executive director of 80 Mile, a UK-listed miner that has three projects on the island.
Most Greenlanders dream not of a US takeover but independence. For that to happen, Greenland needs its economy to grow significantly to make up for the DKr4bn ($550mn) block grant from Denmark. And for that, it needs mining and also tourism to take off. Both industries share common problems: Greenland’s peak season is only roughly half the year, otherwise it is too cold; its infrastructure is limited (there are more than 50 settlements on the island, but no road linking any two of them).
“What we say to the rest of the world is there’s a potential in Greenland . . . but we can’t deliver it tomorrow. And we need help, we can’t do it on our own,” says Jørgen Hammeken-Holm, permanent secretary for the ministry of business, trade, mineral resources, justice and gender equality.
Mike Waltz, Trump’s incoming national security adviser, last week cited the risk that China might step in ahead of the US on this. There is little sign of the Chinese in mining, though. One company had a licence for an iron ore mine but was stripped of it by Greenland’s government in 2021 due to a lack of activity. Another Chinese group is a minority shareholder in a stalled and controversial rare earths project, which the current government in Nuuk blocked due to the presence of uranium in the area.
A Chinese company tried to build two airports in Greenland at the end of the 2010s but, under US pressure, Denmark instead provided the financing. Among big mining companies, only Anglo-American is present in Greenland, where it is involved in very early-stage exploration.
The big question now is whether Trump’s renewed interest in Greenland will help unlock the wave of investment needed for mining. Here, opinions are split. McIllree describes the recent media attention as “publicity you can’t buy”. Still, he concedes he has worked on mining in Greenland for more than two decades with precious little to show for it yet.
80 Mile’s three projects — which contain copper and nickel, hydrogen and helium, and oil — are potentially “100-year mines” but need billions of dollars of investment. “It needs government support to get them off the ground. The reality is it’s expensive in Greenland. We need the US financial system,” McIllree adds.
But officials in Greenland are split. The island’s pitch to investors was it was the politically stable, western alternative to projects in riskier jurisdictions. Trump’s interest could call that into question, with one person familiar with the matter saying some companies have asked about potential guarantees to protect their licences in case of a US takeover.
Hammeken-Holm says that tourism generates more money than mining currently and is likely to in the long term too. Nuuk airport has in recent months been upgraded to take international flights and a new route linking it to New York should open this summer. But high costs, limited infrastructure, and a short season all pose challenges to tourism development.
Like many aspects of the Arctic, the potential for business in Greenland seems huge but the reality often does not live up to the hype, with change taking a long time. Trump’s challenge will be not just to make controversial statements but try to accelerate those business opportunities significantly.
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