Major auctions of modern and contemporary art in London last week offered additional proof that the market is softening.
Combined, the evening sales at the three top auction houses—Christie’s, Phillips, and Sotheby’s—sank 28.1% from a year earlier to £114.2 million (US$138.7 million) before fees, according to an analysis by ArtTactic, a London-based data and analysis firm. The total, which amounted to less than a presale estimate of at least £123.8 million, followed weak evening sales in Hong Kong for both Sotheby’s and Phillips. Christie’s holds its major Hong Kong sales at the end of November.
“Jittery London auctions show that the art market remains fragile,” ArtTactic wrote in its analysis.
Though a reason for the jitters isn’t entirely clear, the big London sales began on Thursday, soon after the start of the Israeli-Hamas war. That injected a huge amount of additional uncertainty into a market already experiencing the effects of geopolitical tensions in Europe and Asia and higher interest rates throughout the world. The results for the art market create a worrisome backdrop ahead of the biggest fall auctions of the year, which will take place in the first half of November in New York.
Still, Christie’s delivered some good market news last week, achieving £62.69 million in sales of modern and contemporary art—3.7% better than a year earlier—at two evening auctions on Friday: a 20th/21st Century evening sale and an auction of the single-owner collection of the late entrepreneur Sam Josefowitz.
That total doesn’t include an additional £16.1 million realized for the Josefowitz collection for 14 lots of antiquities, Old Master Prints, and Asian sculpture and design, ArtTactic said. The collection, which will continue to be featured in three upcoming Paris sales, is expected to realize more than £80 million in all.
Sotheby’s, however, did not fare well in London, with the £37 million total for its two evening sales on Thursday representing a 55.5% decline from last year and its lowest London evening sale total since 2015, according to ArtTactic.
A major reason for the overall drop was the failure to sell Gerhard Richter’s Abstraktes Bild, 1986, which was estimated to fetch between £16 million and £24 million. That led to a total for its modern and contemporary evening auction of £24.4 million, below a presale estimate of at least £39.9 million. Sotheby’s “The Now” evening auction of ultra-contemporary art realized £12.5 million, within expectations.
Phillips’ single evening auction of 20th-century and contemporary art on Friday achieved £14.5 million, just above a presale low estimate expectation of US$13.9 million, a 4.2% drop from a year earlier.
The top lot of the week was Kees van Dongen’s La Quiétude, 1918, fetching £9.1 million during Christie’s auction of the Josefowitz collection. Other top sales in London included Jean-Michel Basquiat’s Future Sciences Versus the Man, 1982, which realized £8.8 million at Christie’s 20th/21st Century evening sale, and Francis Bacon’s Study for a Portrait, 1979, which achieved £3.5 million at Sotheby’s modern and contemporary auction.
Works by ultra-contemporary artists did not sell well in London, following similarly weak sales in Hong Kong, providing more evidence that surging prices in this sector may be over. In Hong Kong, results for works by artists under age 45 fell shy of expectations at HK$95.6 million (US$12.22 million), nearly 55% lower than in the spring and 5.5% lower than a year ago, ArtTactic said.
Last week, sales of ultra-contemporary works totaled £6.29 million, within expectations, but down 50.6% from a year earlier, ArtTactic said. Only 68% of 39 lots offered across all three houses in London sold above the middle of their presale estimate range, compared to 79.4% that did a year ago, the firm said. The biggest sale was for Caroline Walker’s Fragranced, which achieved £445,000, above a £150,000 high estimate.
In its analysis of the Hong Kong auctions, ArtTactic noted that the results showed sellers’ expectations were too high. Of 99 lots offered at Sotheby’s via three auctions, 26 didn’t sell, and 24 sold below the low estimate, for a total sell-through rate of less than 74%. In all, Sotheby’s Hong Kong sales were 0.03% lower than a year earlier.
In percentage terms, Phillips sold more works in its Hong Kong evening sale on Oct. 6 (95.7%), which ArtTactic said could have been a sign that sellers were willing to accept a lower price after witnessing Sotheby’s sales the day before. Still, its total of HK$153 million was 51% lower than the HK$315 million realized at its comparative December 2022 auction, the firm said.
ArtTactic also detailed that appetite in Asia for works priced at HK$10 million or more was clearly fading. There were 26 lots in this price range, and 14, or more than half (nearly 54%), went for less than expected; another 12 sold on or above the low estimate, ArtTactic said.
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