Japanese Yen recovers modestly amid intervention signals

The Japanese Yen (JPY) sticks to its modest intraday recovery gains in the wake of some verbal intervention from Japan’s Finance Minister Kato earlier this Friday. Moreover, bets for another interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) this year, along with the cautious market mood, underpin the safe-haven JPY. Apart from this, a modest US Dollar (USD) downtick drags the USD/JPY pair away from its highest level since February 13, touched earlier today, and closer to mid-152.00s.

Meanwhile, investors seem convinced that Japan’s first female Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, expansive fiscal policies could further delay the BoJ’s tightening plan. This has been a key factor behind the JPY’s slump since the beginning of the current week, which, in turn, might hold back the JPY bulls from placing aggressive bets. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that the JPY has bottomed out against its American counterpart.

Japanese Yen attracts some buyers following verbal intervention from authorities

• Concerns over Japan’s fiscal health grew, and expectations for an immediate interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan dimmed after Sanae Takaichi’s surprise win in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) leadership race last Saturday. The outcome puts her on course to become the country’s first female Prime Minister and fueled speculations about more expansionary fiscal policy.
• Takaichi is seen as a supporter of the former Premier Shinzo Abe’s economic policies, who advocated for heavy spending and monetary stimulus to support the Japanese economy. Takaichi is also expected to oppose any further policy tightening by the BoJ, which, in turn, has been a key factor behind the Japanese Yen’s broad underperformance since the start of the current week.
• Meanwhile, inflation in Japan has stayed at or above the BoJ’s 2% target for more than three years, and the economy expanded for a fifth straight quarter in the three months through June. Moreover, Takaichi’s economic advisors – such as Etsuro Honda and Takuji Aida – were quoted as saying that Japan’s new PM would probably tolerate another rate hike either in December or in January.
• Furthermore, Takaichi said that she did not want to trigger excessive declines in the domestic currency. Moreover, Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Friday that authorities will thoroughly monitor for excessive fluctuations and disorderly movements in the forex market. Kato added that it’s important for currencies to move in a stable manner, reflecting fundamentals.
• This, in turn, provides some respite to the JPY bulls during the Asian session on Friday. Apart from this, the cautious tone around the Asian equity markets assists the safe-haven JPY to recover slightly from its lowest level since February 13, touched against a retreating US Dollar during the Asian session this Friday.
• The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, shot to over a two-month peak on Thursday amid the ongoing political turmoil in Japan and France. The USD bulls seem unaffected by rising bets for two more interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve this year and concerns that a prolonged US government shutdown could affect the economic performance.
• The government shutdown is now in its second week amid few signs of progress toward a deal to advance funding bills, with the Senate rejecting motions to advance competing bills for the seventh time on Thursday. The Senate will not hold any further votes, and the shutdown will extend until at least next week, when the upper chamber is expected to return on Tuesday.
• Friday’s US economic docket features the release of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, later during the North American session. Apart from this, comments from influential FOMC members would drive the USD and provide some impetus to the USD/JPY pair, which remains on track to register strong weekly gains and post its highest weekly close since late January.

USD/JPY finds some support ahead of mid-152.00s; 152.00 holds the key for bullish traders

The overnight close above the 153.00 mark comes on top of the recent breakout through the 151.00 key hurdle and backs the case for further gains for the USD/JPY pair. However, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is flashing slightly overbought conditions and holding back bulls from placing fresh bets. Nevertheless, the broader technical setup suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the upside, and any corrective pullback might be seen as a buying opportunity near the 152.60-152.55 region. This should help limit the downside near the 152.00 round figure.

On the flip side, any further move up is likely to confront some resistance near the 153.70-153.75 region. This is followed by the 154.00 mark, above which the USD/JPY pair could accelerate the momentum towards the 154.70-154.80 zone (February 11 swing high) and reclaim the 155.00 psychological mark.