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In the face of Donald Trump’s America, internal crises from immigration to economic stagnation, and weak political leadership, Europe is struggling to address the “six Ds:” de-globalisation, demographics, decarbonisation, digitalisation, defence and debt. Can Europe survive?
Yes, says David Marsh — though he is realistic about the challenges ahead. To explore this question, Marsh interviewed 160 serving and former officials and analysts, from Condoleezza Rice to Friedrich Merz, and visited several national archives. The result is a well-written, informative, and enjoyable read. Marsh, a former FT Europe editor, has a journalistic eye for detail, whether describing John Major’s “boyish, almost puppy-like enthusiasm”, Christine Lagarde’s Woman of the Year award or the etymology of Maastricht’s name.
The opening and closing chapters of Can Europe Survive? offer astute analysis of the current malaise. Although Europe, along with the US, won most of the cold war debates about the supremacy of capitalism over communism, Marsh argues Europe has since “lost many of the new arguments, lost its leadership, and lost its way.”
In particular, he suggests the transatlantic allies mishandled post-1989 relations with Russia, struggled to address China’s rise and failed to reach agreement on strategic matters such as defence. Within Europe, France and Germany found it difficult to align while the EU mishandled its economic and monetary union. These factors are now compounded by domestic threats to Europe’s democratic stability and economic prosperity, a sidelined Britain, a difficult, semi-reluctant American superpower, and an increasingly competitive China.
Marsh’s recommendations — which include revisiting Jacques Delors’ proposal for a Europe of “concentric circles”; reinvigorating the EU’s partnership with the UK; reinforcing ties with the US; co-operating with and constraining China; developing a sustainable energy mix; investing more in defence; and fixing the EU’s economic weaknesses as outlined in Mario Draghi’s report — are sensible if familiar.
Although current crises provide an opportunity for growth and resilience, Marsh is right to question whether Europe can meet the moment. Its citizens enjoy a good quality of life, he writes, while resisting the reforms needed for adequate defence and economic growth. Furthermore, the US and China will employ divide-and-rule tactics against a continent lacking a unifying spirit and suffering from weak political leadership and low financial strength.
The bulk of the book provides an in-depth review of post-1945 events. Three chapters discuss Germany and Russia, whose complex relationship was further affected by the centrifugal forces of Soviet dissolution and German reunification. They also track Vladimir Putin’s evolution from socially awkward ex-KGB officer to aggrieved dictator who believed the west misled Russia about Nato expansion. One chapter chronicles the EU’s economic and monetary union while another explores Britain’s tortured relationship with the EU.
Frustratingly, the book fails to adequately connect the past to recent developments and policy proposals. The historical chapters end with the tenures of Angela Merkel and Liz Truss, Russia’s 2014 invasion of Crimea, and the 2015 financial crisis. Events of the past few years — including Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine; UK prime minister Rishi Sunak’s finalisation of Brexit; and the Covid-19 pandemic — are addressed separately in the book’s opening and closing chapters. As a result, the book reads at times like two different works uncomfortably bound together.
Marsh is clear-eyed about Europe’s ability to implement his recommendations. Although “Europe’s future depends on successful international co-operation both within and beyond the continent,” he acknowledges that rising support for populist parties and declining governance standards may “impede genuine burden-sharing and encourage renationalisation of European policies and priorities”.
He is also candid about the dilemma facing governments: imposing unpopular reforms with near-term costs for long-term gains, precisely when democratic regression and far-right contenders weaken their ability to do so. He rightly describes social media’s corrosive effects on public discourse, but could have expanded on the fragmented information space and seeming loss of objective truth. The book misses an opportunity to examine Europe’s reliance on American and Chinese technology, arguably as significant as its energy and defence dependencies, that leaves its digital infrastructure vulnerable to foreign manipulation.
Throughout, Marsh rightly emphasises America’s outsized role in Europe. The US was involved in the continent’s postwar reconstruction and served as its security guarantor. It was also essential to steadying European economies during the sovereign debt crisis, shoring up the single currency, and prompting Germany to relax its debt brake. He notes the irony of the EU requiring intervention from the US, “a country from which the Europeans were supposed to be making themselves monetarily independent.” Although not stated explicitly, this is one of the core conundrums facing Europe: the Trump administration’s America First policy, which treats Europe as more foe than friend, not only threatens the continent’s security and stability but also its decades-long reliance on an external force to help resolve internal divisions.
Marsh poses a question that has become more urgent than rhetorical, namely whether Europe can survive as a coherent political and economic force. The answer, as his book makes clear, depends less on Europeans knowing what to do than on finding the will to do it.
Can Europe Survive: The Story of a Continent in a Fractured World by David Marsh Yale £25, 528 pages
Amanda Sloat is professor of practice at IE University in Madrid. She previously served as senior director for Europe at the US National Security Council during the Biden administration
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