The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) will be released on Tuesday by the United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Due to the long-lasting government shutdown, the publication will provide data on changes in the number of Job Openings in September and October, alongside the number of layoffs and quits.
Ahead of the announcement, market participants anticipate that Job Openings reached 7.2 million in October. The last report released showed 7.227 million job openings in August. The report will be released 24 hours before the Federal Reserve (Fed) December monetary policy announcement and is likely to have a limited impact on policymakers’ decision this time. However, more US employment-related data will be coming in the days ahead, and will likely shape bets on what the Fed may or may not do throughout 2026.
JOLTS data is scrutinized by market participants and Fed officials because it can provide valuable insights into labor-market supply and demand dynamics, a key factor affecting salaries and inflation.
The labor market has been cooling down, maybe a bit too much. Fed policymakers now seem more worried about the labour situation than about inflation, which, anyway, is still above the central bank’s target of around 2%.
What to expect in the next JOLTS report?
While the JOLTS Job Openings report offers clues about labor demand, it has a caveat: the report is a lagging indicator, as it is usually released one month later. In this case, due to the US government shutdown, the report is two months old, as it includes September and October data. As previously mentioned, it won’t have a direct impact on the Fed’s decision, but alongside other employment-related data, it will likely shape bets on what the Fed will do in 2026.
In the meantime, speculative interest has steadily increased bets on a 25-basis-point (bps) interest rate cut. But beyond the rate decision, the central bank will also release the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), a document that includes policymakers’ expectations for economic developments and the direction of monetary policy. The language of the monetary policy statement and the SEP could have a significant impact on financial markets.
At the time being, a too-weak labor market is the main reason for interest rate cuts. If employment-related data results are encouraging, investors could reduce bets on upcoming interest rate movements. The US Dollar is likely to firm up on solid local data, coupled with decreased odds for interest rate cuts. The opposite scenario is also valid: poor figures fuel speculation of lower rates, which, in turn, results in a weaker USD.
When will the JOLTS report be released and how could it affect EUR/USD?
Job Openings will be published on Tuesday at 15:00 GMT, and ahead of the release, the EUR/USD pair trades a handful of pips below the multi-week peak posted early in December at 1.1682.
Valeria Bednarik, FXStreet Chief Analyst, notes: “From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD pair is neutral-to-bullish. The pair holds on to modest monthly gains and trades not far from its December peak, but the momentum remains missing as investors await clarification on US economic health and the Fed’s monetary policy path. The 1.1680 area provides resistance ahead of the October monthly peak at around 1.1730. A clear advance beyond the latter would revive the bullish trend, and could see the pair extending gains towards 1.1900 before the year-end.”
Bednarik adds: “The case for a firmer USD is limited. The Greenback could receive some near-term attention should the data results be upbeat, but such gains are unlikely to be sustained in time. Support comes at 1.1600, with losses below the level favoring a downward extension towards 1.1520. A line in the sand comes at around 1.1460, where buyers are likely to add longs.”
Employment FAQs
Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.
The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
Economic Indicator
JOLTS Job Openings
JOLTS Job Openings is a survey done by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics to help measure job vacancies. It collects data from employers including retailers, manufacturers and different offices each month.
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