XRP’s 2025 Wins Failed to Deliver $5 Price: 2026 Outlook Uncertain

In 2025, the XRP community celebrated the long-awaited resolution of the SEC lawsuit, the launch of multiple US-based spot ETFs, and a surge in Ripple partnerships. Yet, the coveted $5 price target remained elusive, with XRP (XRP) price peaking at $3.66 before falling as much as 50% to a low of $1.58 in October. 

Key takeaways:

• Some of the most bullish events for XRP occurred in 2025, yet it fell by over 50%, underperforming the market.

• No sustained buying and low XRP network activity signal weak demand.

• Technicals suggest further downside risk in 2026, with analysts warning of a potential drop below $1.

XRP price did not reflect big milestones in 2025

Several bullish events anticipated by the XRP Army happened in 2025, but XRP continues to underperform the cryptocurrency market. 

In March, XRP was listed as a candidate for the United States’ “Digital Asset Reserve,” sparking an initial price surge of over 30%. However, the executive order limited the stockpile to seized assets only (no new purchases), with Bitcoin favored separately.

This letdown contributed to limited sustained upside, offering symbolic legitimacy but no direct buying pressure going forward.

Related: Three data signals showing XRP trader demand has evaporated

On May 8, Ripple Labs settled a years-long lawsuit with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which was a key reason XRP soared to a seven-year high on July 18. But that momentum quickly faded, and the price dropped 25% to $2.73 less than two weeks later.

The last hope of a parabolic XRP rally in 2025 was institutional demand fueled by inflows into spot ETFs in the United States, which launched in November. 

These investment products have recorded inflows for 24 consecutive days, with cumulative inflows rising to $1.06 billion and total assets under management to over $1.14 billion.

Such a strong start for XRP ETFs reflected confidence among institutional investors, but this has done little to lift trader sentiment regarding XRP price growth odds. 

The Trump administration is likely to continue offering regulatory support for the crypto industry in 2026, and Ripple payments should also experience further growth through strategic partnerships.

But does XRP have a shot at reaching the $5 mark in the new year?

Can XRP price reach $5-$10 in 2026?

During the past six months, the number of daily active addresses (unique users) on the XRP Ledger has remained muted under 45,000. There were just 38,500 active addresses recorded on Dec. 18, a 94% drawdown from a 2025 peak of more than 600,000 addresses recorded in March.

XRP lost over 90% of its value within 12 months of hitting its all-time high in 2018, and that was long before the SEC lawsuit. 

Another decline of that magnitude is not out of the question, considering the token is already down more than 40% from its multi-year high above $3.66. In other words, it will be a tall order for XRP to reach $5 in 2026.

In fact, the technical setup shows that XRP could be heading much lower from here.

XRP has lost the key levels: The psychological level at $2 and the 50-week exponential moving average (SMA) at $1.87, a signal that previously marked cycle peaks.

A key area of interest lies between the 100-week EMA currently at $1.85 and $1.80 (the Nov. 21 low), which, if lost, would trigger another cascade of long liquidations, with local lows at $1.61 being the next area of interest.

Below that, the 200-day EMA $1.38 could provide some respite, where the bulls could regroup before making another attempt at recovery.

Many analysts believe XRP price has topped, however, warning of a deeper price correction going into 2026. 

Veteran trader Peter Brandt said the presence of a “potential double top” pattern could see XRP drop below $1 over the coming weeks or months.

Conversely, other analysts, such as Chad Steingraber, are confident that the XRP price may grow “from $2 to $10” in 2026, citing persistent spot ETF inflows and more bullish technicals on higher time frames.

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