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Retail investors have stocked up on defence, energy and precious metals at the start of 2026 amid the geopolitical turbulence triggered by events in Iran, Venezuela and President Donald Trump’s designs for Greenland.
US oil and gas companies Chevron and ExxonMobil, which could potentially regain access to Venezuela’s oil reserves — the world’s largest — after Trump launched an audacious operation to capture Venezuela’s strongman leader Nicolás Maduro, were at the top of the buy list as UK investors reshaped their portfolios.
IG, an online trading provider, reported that trading volumes for Chevron on its platform were 20 times higher in the first full week of January than any other week in the past three months.
“Trump’s Venezuela adventure has meant that attention is squarely focused on the possible beneficiaries of the action, namely Chevron and Exxon, who stand to benefit from the return of US oil companies to the country,” said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG.
Interactive Investor, the second-largest UK investment platform by users, said Chevron was its most bought US stock at the start of the year as Trump claimed control of Venezuela’s vast natural resources.
“A potential US-led rebuild of the country’s infrastructure could lead to particular opportunities for Chevron, which is the only major US producer operating in the country,” said Richard Hunter, head of markets at Interactive Investor.
Chevron has been bullish about its ability to increase its oil production in Venezuela, whereas Darren Woods, Exxon’s more circumspect chief executive, said the country remained “uninvestable”.
BP, the UK oil major, also saw demand, becoming the second most bought individual stock on AJ Bell’s platform in the first week of January, beaten only by tobacco company Imperial Brands, a defensive bolt-hole in an uncertain world.
Defence companies have been in demand as well, in the wake of the Trump administration’s threats to take over Greenland, with some arguing that any US annexation of the island by force would spell the end of Nato, forcing Europe to become militarily self-reliant.
Trump then upped the ante further by calling for US defence spending to be increased by 50 per cent to $1.5tn by 2027.
Buy trades for defence exchange traded funds on Interactive Investor rose by 29 per cent from their December levels, while IG said trading volumes for UK defence company BAE Systems were 50 per cent higher in the first week of January than any other week since the start of October.
“Trump’s ambition to throw yet more money at the US military has lit a fire under BAE Systems, which has returned to record highs as the December rally goes parabolic,” said Beauchamp, with the share price having quadrupled since the start of 2021.
Emma Wall, chief investment strategist at Hargreaves Lansdown, the UK’s biggest “DIY” investment site, injected a note of caution, however, saying that “stock pickers will find few bargains today and, while BAE is our analyst team’s preferred stock in the sector due to its portfolio and therefore diversified revenues, it is fully valued”.
Gold, a traditional refuge in times of geopolitical uncertainty, and its sidekick silver, have also been snapped up by small investors as both have soared to record highs.
Hargreaves saw trading volumes for gold and silver exchange traded funds surge by 153 per cent above average weekly levels in the first week of January, outstripping even a 77 per cent increase in trading of oil and gas stocks and a 39 per cent uplift across aerospace and defence.
The iShares Physical Gold ETC (exchange traded commodity) was the third most bought investment via AJ Bell at the start of month — behind only the Alliance Witan Investment Trust and Vanguard S&P 500 Ucits ETF — while IG said trading in silver exceeded previous record highs by 70 per cent.
“The renewed surge in silver has attracted those who missed out on some of the December surge, as traders piled in, following the first real dip in weeks,” said IG’s Beauchamp.
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