Groundhog Day and Friday the 13th

Congress is a very superstitious place. Only on Capitol Hill would temporal markers like Groundhog Day and Friday the 13th hold legislative resonance.

The partial government shutdown will continue until at least Tuesday. This impacts 78% of the federal government after Democrats scuttled a multi-bill spending plan last week over concerns about ICE.

The charge now for the House of Representatives is to align with a revised Senate-passed plan from Friday. This bill would fund the Pentagon, HUD, transportation programs and a host of agencies through September 30. But it would only operate DHS temporarily as Democrats demand reforms to ICE.

Many House Democrats balked at the plan supported by many Senate Democrats on Friday. That contributed to uncertainty about whether the House can reopen the government this week. First, House Democrats argued they weren’t a party to the deal cut by many Senate Democrats to partly fund the government and only apply a Band-Aid to DHS funding.

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House Democrats seethed — not so privately – last March when Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and other Democrats agreed to help Republicans avoid a shutdown. So last Thursday, I asked House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) if he and Schumer were in sync this time.

“First of all, that question is, so March of 2025,” Jeffries chided.

He then ran through a litany of examples of House and Senate Democrats aligning, ranging from health care to the fall government shutdown. Jeffries then answered the question.

“Yes. Short answer. We are on the same page,” said Jeffries.

And then added a caveat — which is so February 2026.

“Now with respect to what emerges from the Senate, as is always the case, we will evaluate whatever bill comes over to us on its merits,” said Jeffries.

Some Democrats were fine with the funding deal. Moderate Democrats didn’t want to continue the government shutdown. It’s bad politics back home. Others embraced earmarks they secured in the funding package. Yet progressives argued they couldn’t support any funding bill until they saw concrete plans to reform ICE. That’s to say nothing of some on the left wanting to defund ICE.

“I will be voting no on this funding package. I refuse to send another cent to (White House Adviser) Stephen Miller or (Homeland Security Secretary) Kristi Noem,” said Rep. Jim McGovern (D-MA), the top Democrat on the House Rules Committee.

But Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-CT), the ranking Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee, planned to vote yes. The bill funds most of the government for the rest of the fiscal year. And it buys time to get a deal on ICE.

“If we do not do that, we will not be able to bring the kinds of pressure that is necessary to make sure that ICE does not continue to terrorize our communities,” said DeLauro.

So there may be the votes to pass the bill. But the real problem may be on a test vote, known as the rule.

The House must approve the rule first to determine how it will handle a bill on the floor. If the House adopts the rule, it can debate and vote on the bill. If the vote on the rule fails, the gig is up.

Some Republicans may oppose the rule. And Democrats made clear they would not assist on the procedural measure which is customarily carried by the majority party.

“Republicans have a responsibility to move the rule,” said Jeffries. “If they have some massive mandate, then go pass your rule.”

House Republicans feel the pressure.

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“We always work until the midnight hour to get the votes. You never start the process with everyone on board,” said House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA).

It’s about the math.

The Republican majority shrank Monday after the House swore-in Rep. Christian Menefee (D-TX). He won a special election in Texas over the weekend. The GOP majority now holds a 218-214 advantage. In other words, Republican can lose one vote and still pass a bill on their own if every Member casts a ballot.

“Does his election make your job a little tougher tomorrow?” I asked House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) as he met with Menefee for the ceremonial swearing-in.

“We have a one vote margin now. So what could go wrong? That’s fine. We’re happy for him. And, I hope the first vote is not to shut the government down. That’s not a good way to start,” said Johnson.

“Are you going to make the job a little harder on the Republican side tomorrow?” I queried Menefee.

“I just got elected on Saturday and just jumped off the plane to get here. So my first job is to figure out what the bathroom is,” said Menefee.

I followed up.

“Does that mean a no vote tomorrow?”

“It means I’ve got to consider the issues very thoughtfully and cast a vote that matches my values,” deflected Menefee.

“Good answer!” exclaimed an ecstatic Johnson.

So everything hinges on the rule vote. If the House crosses that procedural hurdle, it can probably pass the bill and end the shutdown. If not, there’s trouble.

President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that he hoped there was a bipartisan solution to what he termed a “long, pointless and destructive shutdown.”

Perhaps it’s only appropriate that everyone was talking about ending a government shutdown on Groundhog Day. Especially after the record-breaking 43-day shutdown last autumn.

By the way, Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow. He forecast six more weeks of winter. After all of these funding fights, when is someone going to ask Phil for his prognostication about the shutdown?

But forget Groundhog Day. What everyone should really focus on is Friday the 13th. As in a week from Friday. If the House aligns with the Senate and ends the partial government shutdown, lawmakers only have until 11:59:59 pm et on Friday the 13th to fund DHS. Otherwise, DHS remains broke. Again. That means FEMA has issues. TSA agents aren’t getting paid. You name it.

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It’s hard to address issues with ICE in such a tight timeframe.

“Republicans need to take a good look at what’s happening around the country and realize too that it’s time to rein in ICE’s abuses,” said Schumer.

Some Republicans agree.

“We should have been focusing on criminals and gang members and people with active deportation orders. I don’t think we should have been focusing on people that have been here for a long time, grandmothers, et cetera, that happen to be in a neighborhood when you’re doing an enforcement action,” said Rep. Carlos Gimenez (R-FL) on Fox Business. “I think that that was a mistake and I think it’s coming back to haunt us right now.”

So there’s bipartisan agreement on addressing ICE. But those reforms must make it through both the House and Senate by Friday the 13th.

Only Congress could create a nightmare like this.