Beyond the most recent GLP-1 feud between Hims & Hers and Novo Nordisk, UBS analysts shift attention to anti-obesity drug trends in the U.S. market for the first week of February.
Analysts led by Matthew Weston focused on new data that show new-to-brand prescriptions (NBRx) for starter doses and all doses across the major obesity GLP-1s in a series of charts:
Obesity GLP-1 starter dose NBRx (up to 2/6/2026)
GLP-1 starter dose NBRx trends (up to 2/6/2026)
GLP-1 starter dose NBRx market share (up to 2/6/2026)
Obesity GLP-1 all doses Total Prescriptions (TRx, up to 2/6/2026)
Weston concluded:
NBRx trends for Wegovy continue to look strong with an encouraging start to the Wegovy pill launch. The uptick in NBRx at the start of the year for Wegovy pen is also going in the right direction. Importantly, the high proportion of Wegovy NBRx pill to TRx and high proportion of Wegovy pill starter dose NBRx to total NBRx suggest that there is very little cannibalisation of Wegovy pen volumes through the pill launch. Further focus points later in the year will be Medicare coverage from July, high dose Wegovy (7.2mg) launch and competitive dynamics from LLY’s orforglipron launch (UBSe April).
The latest GLP-1 headline came from Europe earlier on Tuesday, when the European Commission cleared Novo to use a higher 7.2 mg maintenance dose of Wegovy. This approval reinforces that even greater demand for semaglutide is inbound.
In markets, Novo shares in Copenhagen have been pummeled by market share losses to rival GLP-1 drugs, a public feud with Hims & Hers over copycat GLP-1 offerings, and a recently downbeat outlook for the year. Still, the stock’s downside momentum has eased in recent quarters, although it remains about 70% below its 2024 peak.
Meanwhile, Goldman analyst Faris Mourad previously told clients that “obesity drug narrative sentiment is on the rise” and “it’s an opportunity to buy the dip.” James Quigley (Novo superbull) has remained bullish during Novo’s bear market.
Professional subscribers can read the full UBS GLP-1 note on our new Marketdesk.ai portal.
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