Iran President Issues ‘Olive Branch’ But IRGC Overrides With More Attacks; Third US Carrier To Arrive In Gulf

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Update(1310ET): Are we witnessing an olive branch from Tehran? That’s assuming that President Pezeshkian and the Foreign Ministery are even in charge – also as the IRGC is clearly running this war, and may have already even issued orders for autonomy/division of action among the various military command chains. Here’s the message that Iran’s Foreign Ministry put out moments ago:

President Pezeshkian expressed openness to de-escalation within our region-provided that our neighbors’ airspace, territory, and waters are not used to attack the Iranian People. Gesture to our neighbors was almost immediately killed by President Trump.

Saturday has clearly seen a continuation of Iranian drone and missile attacks on Gulf countries, including a direct drone hit on Dubai international airport Saturday morning. So de-escalation does not in fact seem to be happening, also as there are reports of a third US supercarrier en route to the region, possibly to relieve the long-deployed USS Gerald R. Ford carrier. Here is the Iranian Foreign Minister’s statement. 

Below is the latest on the potential third carrier deployment, which would be a first since Bush’s Iraq war (having three carriers in the Mideast theatre), per FOX and open source reporting:

The U.S. Navy is preparing to deploy a third carrier strike group to the Middle East near Iran in the coming weeks, according to a report by Fox News, with the USS George H. W. Bush (CVN-77) and her Carrier Strike Group having now completing their Composite Training Unit Exercise (COMPTUEX), expected to depart from Naval Station Norfolk in Virginia sometime before the end of March for a regularly scheduled deployment to the U.S. 5th Fleet Area-of-Responsibility. However, due to the ongoing hostilities with Iran, it is not known if she will relieve the USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78), who entered the Red Sea on Thursday and has been deployed now for nearly 11-months, or if she will arrive to further reinforce the U.S. Navy in the Middle East.

Meanwhile, Iran state media says a new Supreme Leader could be chosen within the next 24 hours, as no doubt the various reformist vs. hardline factions are jostling – likely with the more conservative candidates to win out.

* * *

As the US-Israeli war on Iran grinds into its second week, having completed a full week of what’s largely been escalation alongside no real efforts at talks, the rhetoric on all sides is still expanding just as fast as the missile exchanges. Iran continues to get bombed very intensely, while several overnight ballistic missile and drone waves hit Israel.

The biggest development is that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian says Tehran will never capitulate, pushing back after Donald Trump demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender”. But unexpectedly Pezeshkian has apologized to Gulf countries for coming under attack.

But strangely, in something which suggests how little in control Pezeshkian actually is (as more likely the IRGC is running the show, also as the Council of Experts delays choosing a Khamenei successor), Iran has continued launching drones and missiles toward Israel and targets across the Gulf – again, even as officials insist Tehran has no intention of attacking neighboring states unless attacks originate from their territory.

Trump, however, is already declaring victory while promising even more escalation. Posting on Truth Social, the president warned that “today Iran will be hit very hard” while saying that new targets could soon be added. “Under serious consideration for complete destruction and certain death, because of Iran’s bad behavior, are areas and groups of people that were not considered for targeting up until this moment in time,” Trump wrote.

He also claimed Tehran had effectively backed down in the region, saying Pezeshkian had “surrendered” to neighboring countries and “promised that it will not shoot at them anymore.” According to Trump, “This promise was only made because of the relentless U.S. and Israeli attack.”

And yet…

The president went further, declaring:

Iran is no longer the ‘Bully of the Middle East,’ they are, instead, ‘THE LOSER OF THE MIDDLE EAST,’ and will be for many decades until they surrender or, more likely, completely collapse! Today Iran will be hit very hard!

On the ground, the ‘second front’ of the conflict is widening: Israeli air and ground raids on the Lebanese town of Nabi Chit in the eastern Bekaa Valley reportedly killed at least 41 people, as fighting with Hezbollah intensifies. Beirut has also been getting bombed from the air, with whole buildings leveled.

Meanwhile Saudi Arabia says it newly intercepted two ballistic missiles headed toward Prince Sultan Air Base and drones targeting the Shaybah oilfield.

Rare close-up Tel Aviv strike footage, with Iron Dome clearly struggling and failing in this instance:

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is warning the region could quickly spiral further, freshly announcing that all US and Israeli bases and interests will be treated as “primary targets” if attacks on Iran continue. This does not feel very ‘de-escalationy’ at all, or a country that is actually ‘apologizing’ to its Gulf neighbors.

Tehran is also busy issuing internal warnings to its population as the war expands, warning firmly against any anti-government protests while the country is under attack. Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence accused what it called “American-Zionist mercenaries” of photographing missile impact sites and sending footage to “terrorist satellite networks” abroad, warning citizens that assisting foreign media or intelligence operations will be treated as a national security offense.

Over in Israel, there’s also a similarly heavy military censorship campaign and apparent attempt to conceal the true extent of damage after a week of war. Israeli media on Saturday morning reported the eighth missile launch since midnight, but with the projectile reportedly intercepted.

In the Gulf, the IRGC claimed responsibility for striking another tanker on Saturday. According to Sepah News, “An oil tanker with the trade name Louise P with the flag of the Marshall Islands, one of the assets of the terrorist America, was hit by a drone in the middle of the Persian Gulf.” And quickly after, reports of a second, via Bloomberg:

Another bulk carrier signaled it was Chinese-owned as it sailed through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway at the mouth of the Persian Gulf that’s been effectively closed for a week due to multiple attacks in the area. 

The Liberia-flagged Sino Ocean broadcast its destination signal as “CHINA OWNER_ALL CREW” as it traversed the chokepoint. The vessel exited the strait Saturday, according to ship-tracking data, after picking up its cargo from the United Arab Emirates’ Mina Saqr port on March 5.

Meanwhile, the almost daily changing White House talking points on the war – whether related to justification or moving goalposts and objectives – appears to be running up against the realism consensus of the intelligence community.

A classified US National Intelligence Council assessment reportedly concluded that even a large-scale assault on Iran would be unlikely to topple the Islamic Republic. According to The Washington Post the report was completed roughly a week before the war began, and it outlined succession scenarios if Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei were killed, concluding institutional mechanisms would likely keep the system intact and that opposition groups were “unlikely” to seize power.

There continues to be speculation and back-and-forth over the true depth of Iran’s ballistic missile capability: running low or just getting started? It’s impossible for outside observers to know for sure…

Back in the US, there is a somber moment as the bodies of six American service members killed in the conflict are scheduled to arrive at Dover Air Force Base for a dignified transfer ceremony, which both Trump and Vice President JD Vance are attending.

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