US Publishes Alarming Radio Warning To Ships In Hormuz As Negotiators Cite ‘Progress’ Toward 2nd Round Of Pakistan Talks

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Summary

  • The Iran war is “very close to over” with authorities in Tehran eager to agree a peace deal, Trump says, adding: “We’ve beaten them militarily.” Axios cites ‘progress’ toward framework to end war.

  • AP/Bloomberg reporting the two sides have an “in principle agreement” to pursue further diplomacy; however, this is batted down as ‘unconfirmed’ by Tehran & a US official.

  • The Pentagon is sending thousands of additional troops into the Middle East in coming days: WaPo

  • Trump claims China “very happy” the US is permanently opening the Strait of Hormuz, also Xi told him Beijing was not sending weapons/defense items to Tehran.

  • Significant Lebanon fighting continues: Israel issues more evacuation orders, moving into south; Tehran outraged, threatens Red Sea shipping. Unconfirmed reports of one-week Lebanon ceasefire about to take effect.

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Yes 33% · No 68%
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CENTCOM Updates Tanker Numbers amid Blockade

CENTCOM provides a Wednesday update: “During the first 48 hours of the U.S. blockade on ships entering and exiting Iranian ports, no vessels have made it past U.S. forces. Additionally, 9 vessels have complied with direction from U.S. forces to turn around and return toward an Iranian port or coastal area.”

A big question remains: will Iran confront the US blockade militarily?… or will an uneasy status quo of limited vessel traffic continue to make it through Hormuz amid a potentially extended ceasefire that goes beyond the 2-week window?

A new warning from the White House/CENTCOM:

The White House and the U.S. military published a clip of a warning to ships, telling them not to breach the blockade of Iranian ports and coastal areas. In a maritime radio message, a U.S. servicemember tells ships that they will be boarded for interdiction and seizure if they attempt to travel to or from an Iranian port.

Meanwhile in Tehran…

‘Progress’ Reported in US-Iran Contacts

Axios reports that US and Iranian negotiators “made progress in talks on Tuesday” while moving closer to a framework agreement to end the war, according to two US officials. The headline briefly pushed oil lower. This comes as Pakistan’s top general headed a high-ranking political-security delegation from Pakistan to convey the US message and plan the second round of talks to Tehran. Per details in Axios:

  • “They were on the phone and backchanneling with all the countries and they are getting closer,” the U.S. official said.
  • A second U.S. official confirmed progress was made Tuesday.
  • “We want to make a deal. And parts of their government want to make a deal. Now the trick is to get the whole of government over there to make the deal,” a third U.S. official said.

Meanwhile, state Tasnim is reporting that Pakistan is getting ready to host the second round of Iran-US talks.

Lebanon Ceasefire Imminent? 

The Hezbollah-affiliated Al-Mayadeen channel, citing a senior Iranian source, reports that a ceasefire in Lebanon will begin tonight. “The duration of the ceasefire will be one week and will extend until the end of the ceasefire period between Iran and the United States.”

However, there’s been no confirmation of this from Israel or the US, or in Israeli media. The Lebanese government just met with Israeli officials for Rubio-sponsored talks in Washington yesterday, but there was no word of a definitive ceasefire coming from the meeting, and currently Hezbollah and Israel are not directly talking at all. It remains unclear whether this could be a sign of Lebanese officials getting Hezbollah on board with a pause in fighting.

Meanwhile, two fresh notes on the question of advancing a second round of US-Iran negotiations:

  • Iranian media reported that Field Marshal Asim Munir, Chief of Staff of the Pakistani Army, headed a high-ranking political-security delegation from Pakistan to convey the US message and plan the second round of talks, and is scheduled to meet with officials of the Islamic Republic.
  • Regional mediators are trying to extend the U.S.–Iran cease-fire and restart talks after failed negotiations in Islamabad, but no date or venue has been set. A new round is unlikely before Pakistan completes its regional diplomatic

‘Very Close’ To War Over, Diplomacy in Reach: Trump

The latest from Trump: The Iran war is “very close to over” with authorities in Tehran eager to agree a peace deal, President Trump claimed in a fresh interview broadcast Wednesday. “We’ve beaten them militarily, totally,” Trump told Fox Business in a prerecorded interview. “I think it’s close to over, I view it as very close to over… If I pulled up stakes right now it would take them 20 years to rebuild that country, and we’re not finished.” He added: “We’ll see what happens, I think they want to make a deal very badly.”

This as the Associated Press has reported the US and Iran are closer to extending a ceasefire and restarting negotiations, even amid the intensifying standoff over the Strait of Hormuz as the US Navy has blockaded it for all shipping leaving Iranian ports or with ties, or under sanction.

The two sides have an “in principle agreement” to pursue further diplomacy after last weekend’s failed Islamabad talks. Trump on Tuesday had optimistically cited that the next round could be just two days away. Mediators are said to be pushing for a compromise on outstanding issues including Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program before the April 7 truce expires next week, the news agency said – as they also eye the extension off the initial two weeks.

However, Iran’s Foreign Ministry has made clear the reports about the ceasefire extension are not confirmed, while Axios’ Barak Ravid similarly writes – US official tells me: “The US has not agreed to an extension of the ceasefire. There is continued engagement between the U.S. and Iran to reach a deal.”

Iran meanwhile is warning that it sees a prolonging of the US blockade as “a prelude to a breach of the ceasefire,” a military spokesman said, as featured state TV. Iran’s military “will not permit any exports or imports to continue in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman or the Red Sea” if it continues, the spokesman added. 

IRAN’S BAGHAEI: NO SPECIFIC DAY SET FOR NEW US NEGOTIATIONS

 

Trump on China

President Trump says he asked his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping not to supply weapons to Iran, and Xi replied he was not doing so. “I had heard that China’s giving weapons to, I mean – you’re seeing it all over the place – to Iran,” Trump also said in the aforementioned Fox Business interview.

“And I wrote him a letter asking him not to do that, and he wrote me a letter saying that essentially he’s not doing that.” Major media outlets previously reported that US intelligence indicated China was preparing to ship advanced weaponry to Iran. Beijing’s public rejection of the “baseless smear” – as the Foreign Minister called it – has indeed been swift and vehement.

With oil prices remaining elevated, with Brent crude trading about 33% higher than before the start of the war, Trump has issued a new Truth Social claiming China is “very happy that I am permanently opening the Strait of Hormuz.” This even though in many cases it is China bound tankers being blocked and turned back by the US naval armada. “This situation will never happen again,” Trump added. He is set to meet with Xi in Beijing on May 14-15. On this he wrote that “President Xi will give me a big, fat, hug when I get there in a few weeks. We are going working together smartly, and very well!” But then Trump says “But remember, we are very good at fighting, if we have to…”

More Troops Sent to Mideast

The Washington Post is out with a new report of more troops being sent to the theatre. “The Pentagon is sending thousands of additional troops into the Middle East in the coming days, as the Trump administration attempts to pressure Iran into a deal that could end the weeks long conflict there while considering the possibility of additional strikes or ground operations if a fragile ceasefire deal does not hold.”

Already a combined estimated ten thousand US sailors, Marines, and personnel – on at least a dozen US warships, are maintaining the Trump-ordered blockade on Hormuz. So Washington continues to try and build leverage, also with the announced additional forces being prepped, while also sounding optimistic on a potential peace deal – thought to two sides are very far apart especially on the nuclear issue.

Trump has at times still shrugged off the importance of a final peace deal, having told ABC News that while an official peace agreement may not be necessary, “I think a deal is preferable because then they can rebuild.” He had said, “They really do have a different regime now. No matter what, we took out the radicals.”

Tehran (& Houthis) Threaten Red Sea Trade as Lebanon Fighting Persists

Iran’s army warned it will block trade through the Red Sea, the Persian Gulf, and the Sea of Oman if the US naval blockade on Iranian ports continues. In a statement carried by Iranian state television, the head of the military’s central command center said the “powerful armed forces of the Islamic Republic will not allow any exports or imports to continue in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman and the Red Sea.”

According to more via Al Jazeera, he added that Iran will “act decisively to defend its national sovereignty and its interests.” One key factor which has outraged Iran is Israel’s continued major attacks on Lebanon, after last Wednesday’s massive aerial attack on Beirut and elsewhere which left over 300 dead. Israel on Wednesday said that Hezbollah fired 40 rockets into Israel earlier in the morning.

An Israeli drone strike on the Jiyeh road, Lebanon

More Geopolitical Headlines

via Newsquawk…

  • Effort to extend US-Iran ceasefire has made progress, AP reports citing official; mediators aim to extend the ceasefire for at least another two weeks; both sides gave an “in principle agreement” to extend the ceasefire.
  • Discussions are underway regarding possible extension of temporary ceasefire between Iran and US, according to Arab diplomatic sources cited by Russia on Wednesday and being reported by Chinese press CCTV.
  • However, US President Trump said it could end either way, but thinks a deal is preferable because then Iran can rebuild, also said he isn’t thinking about extending the ceasefire and doesn’t think it will be necessary, according to reported citing ABC reporter on X.
  • The Pentagon is sending thousands of additional troops into the Middle East in the coming days, WaPo reports citing US officials; in a bid to pressure Iran while mulling the possibility of additional strikes or ground operations if the ceasefire breaks.
  • US President Trump said it’s “very possible” a deal with Iran will be reached by the time the King visits the US later this month (27-29th April), Sky News reported.
  • US President Trump said he views the war being very close to over, according to Fox News.
  • US VP Vance said we are negotiating with Iran and ceasefire is holding, adds Iranian negotiators wanted to make a deal.
  • Feel good about where we are.
  • Lot of mistrust between the US and Iran, can’t be solved overnight.
  • US Vice President JD Vance is expected to lead a potential second round of talks with Iranian officials should negotiations lead to another face-to-face meeting before the ceasefire expires next week, according to sources familiar cited by CNN.
  • Pakistan leadership’s overseas tour until April 18th dims prospects of US-Iran talks in Islamabad before April 18th, Pakistani journalist Mallick reported.
  • Iran is to use alternative ports to those in southern Iran to bypass the US blockade in the Strait, Mehr News reported.
  • An Iranian VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier), which was on the US sanctions list, entered the waters of Iran past the US blockade, Fars reported.
  • Iran secretly acquired a Chinese spy satellite that gave the Islamic republic a powerful new capability to target US military bases across the Middle East during the recent war, according to an FT investigation.
  • US Central Command said blockade of Iranian ports has been fully implemented and that US forces have completely halted economic trade going into and out of Iran by sea.
  • US has intercepted eight Iran-linked oil tankers since the start of the blockade, according to WSJ.
  • New satellite images show Iran digging for missile launchers trapped underground amid a ceasefire, according to CNN.
  • More than 20 commercial ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, WSJ reported, citing US officials.
  • US destroyer interdicted two oil tankers that attempted to leave Iran on Tuesday, according to an official cited by Reuters.
  • US President Trump reiterates on Truth Social “NATO wasn’t there for us, and they won’t be there for us in the future!”.
  • Europe is accelerating a NATO fallback plan in case US President Trump pulls US out of the treaty, according to WSJ.
  • US Pentagon is likely to trim its Iran wall funding request, according to WSJ citing Senator Coons who is the top democrat on the Senate appropriations defense committee.



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