FirstFT: Chinese citizens unconvinced by official growth claims

Good morning and happy Friday. In today’s newsletter:

• Chinese citizens doubt official growth claims

• Has China already reached peak oil?

• Uproar in India over long work hours

We start in China, where a slew of economic data is due today, including GDP figures expected to show the world’s second-largest economy expanded at a brisk pace of about 5 per cent in 2024.

But many Chinese people who work in sectors from banking and local government to restaurants and ride-hailing are unconvinced by official growth claims — and say current conditions feel more like a recession.

“I don’t know where this growth is supposed to be coming from,” an owner of a printing and advertising company in Beijing told the FT.

“The authorities can say whatever they want,” he said, suggesting the official data was “blind to reality”. “For me, 2024 has been the worst year in my 20-plus years of running this business.”

Economists, and even senior officials, have long questioned the accuracy of China’s GDP numbers, which are released by the National Bureau of Statistics and almost always hit annual government targets with uncanny accuracy. Here’s what they say about the country’s growth figures.

• Chinese property market: Rio Tinto, the Anglo-Australian miner, has pointed to “signs of stabilisation” in Chinese property after weak demand from the country’s construction sector hit the price of iron ore last year.

And here’s what else we’re keeping tabs on today and over the weekend:

• Middle East: Israel’s cabinet will meet today to discuss the approval of the Gaza ceasefire, while a far-right minister has threatened to quit if the government implements the deal.

• Russia-Iran ties: Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian hold talks in Moscow, where they are expected to sign a strategic partnership pact. (Reuters)

• Asean meeting: Foreign ministers gather in Langkawi, Malaysia on Saturday.

• TikTok: A US ban on the popular Chinese-owned app is due to take effect on Sunday.

How well did you keep up with the news this week? Take our quiz.

Five more top stories

1. Washington has blacklisted Zhipu, China’s most prominent start-up developing large language models for artificial intelligence, alleging that it was advancing Chinese military capabilities through the integration of AI research. The start-up said it “strongly disagreed” with the US move, which it said “lacked factual basis”. Read the full story.

• More on AI: Donald Trump’s pick for secretary of the interior warned the US could lose the “AI arms race” to China unless it boosts generation of energy from fossil fuels and stabilises its electricity grid.

• TSMCS results: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company has cut its profitability target despite roaring demand for AI chips.

2. Donald Trump’s nominee to be Treasury secretary said the US should increase sanctions on Russian oil producers to force Moscow to negotiate with Ukraine. The comments yesterday by Scott Bessent pushed up oil prices, as traders considered the prospect of tighter global crude supply. Here’s what the Treasury nominee said about China during his confirmation hearing.

3. Trump could use the approval of cross-border deals to press foreign governments into aligning with US policy priorities, dealmakers and investors have warned. One European banker said: “The people in this administration have no compunction about using every lever at their disposal to achieve their aims.”

• Nippon Steel: An anti-Japan tirade by the head of US steelmaker Cleveland-Cliffs is symptomatic of the abrasive environment brewing in the Trump era, writes Leo Lewis.

4. The UK foreign secretary and home secretary have intervened on China’s planning application for an enormous new London embassy, signalling their support while outlining conditions for the proposed site. Read more about Beijing’s planned mega-embassy in London.

5. Activist short seller Nathan Anderson, famous for his campaigns against Adani Group, Super Micro and Nikola, is shutting down his firm Hindenburg Research seven years after he founded it. Here’s why.

The Big Read

Foreign oil has underpinned China’s economic rise, as the country built the world’s largest car industry from scratch, new railways and air travel networks, and thousands of skyscrapers. But China’s thirst for crude may be reaching a peak sooner than expected, a development that has sent shockwaves through the oil market.

We’re also reading . . . 

• Do Indians work too much?: An executive in the country has gone viral for saying workers should be in the office on Sundays.

• US oligarchs: The emergence of a powerful tech elite close to Donald Trump has jarring echoes with Russia, writes John Thornhill.

• Life after war: The joy sweeping Gaza at the expected halt to the devastating Israel-Hamas conflict is mixed with grief over months of death and destruction.

Chart of the day

Local smartphone makers Vivo and Huawei leapfrogged Apple to become the top two sellers in the Chinese market last year, dealing a blow to the iPhone maker as it struggles to introduce AI features on the mainland.

Take a break from the news . . . 

Here’s what Asia’s top art collectors are buying as collectors descend on Singapore this week for Art SG.