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Good morning. We have new data today signalling an end to the lengthy drought in global dealmaking, with blockbuster takeovers more than doubling in the first quarter of this year.
The number of deals worth at least $10bn jumped in the first three months of 2024 compared with the same period last year, driven by large US deals in the energy, tech and financial sectors, according to data from the London Stock Exchange Group.
Eleven such transactions, with a total value of $215bn, were struck during the quarter, up from five takeovers worth a combined $100bn in the first three months of 2023. The overall value of global mergers and acquisitions climbed 30 per cent to $690bn even as the total number of deals announced fell 31 per cent.
The rebound in dealmaking comes after M&A activity plunged to a decade-long low last year, as a frenzy of activity fuelled by rock-bottom interest rates during the Covid-19 pandemic was followed by a sharp decline in takeovers. Here’s more on the regions driving a nascent recovery in the M&A market.
And here’s what else I’m keeping tabs on today:
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Economic data: The UK and US publish revised fourth-quarter gross domestic product figures, while Germany has February labour market data.
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Sam Bankman-Fried: Prosecutors are seeking up to 50 years of prison time for the FTX founder at his sentencing today, after he was convicted on multiple counts of fraud and money laundering.
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Results: Arbuthnot Banking Group, Capricorn Energy, JD Sports and Walgreens Boots Alliance report.
Five more top stories
1. Exclusive: The UK’s High Court has ordered Labour “megadonor” Dale Vince to inform his wife of future donations after her lawyers claimed during divorce proceedings that she had been kept “in the dark” about the tycoon’s plans to fund the opposition party with donations from their shared assets. Vince, founder of energy company Ecotricity, is expected to donate £5mn to the opposition party. Here are more details from the case.
2. Stock traders have begun placing bets on an upsurge of volatility around November’s US election, which is shaping up to be a tense rematch between President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump. Futures contracts tied to the value of the Vix index — the so-called fear gauge that measures expectations of near-term swings in the S&P 500 — are pricing in a rise in market stress in the weeks before and after voters head to the polls. Here’s how this compares with previous election years.
3. Exclusive: Chatbots that claim to predict share prices and evade plagiarism detectors are among the most popular on OpenAI’s new app store, according to data from analytics group SimilarWeb. The Microsoft-backed start-up has allowed paying users to create custom versions of ChatGPT since November, with other subscribers then able to access these so-called “GPTs” through an online store. But a Financial Times analysis shows some of them could be in breach of OpenAI’s usage policies.
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More AI: Amazon has committed a further $2.75bn to Anthropic in the tech giant’s largest venture investment, bringing its total commitment to the AI start-up to $4bn.
4. German credit rating agency Scope has been fined more than €2mn for breaches related to Greensill Capital. The European Securities and Markets Authority did not publicly name Greensill when levying the rare fine against Scope over failures to manage conflicts of interest last week. But the dates of individual credit ratings and other details referenced in the penalty exactly match Scope’s work for the failed supply chain finance group. Read the full story.
5. A top Federal Reserve official has said the US central bank should “push back” the timing of cutting interest rates after “disappointing” inflation data. Christopher Waller, a Fed governor and one of the most influential US rate-setters, said yesterday that the recent rise in month-on-month measures of prices reinforced his view that there was “no rush” to lower the central bank’s 5.25 per cent to 5.5 per cent target range. Here’s more from his remarks.
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UK interest rates: Despite recent falling headline inflation figures, the Bank of England’s rate cuts should be “a long way off”, one of the central bank’s most hawkish rate-setters told the FT.
For more on rate-setters’ battle against inflation, sign up for our Central Banks newsletter by Chris Giles if you are a premium subscriber, or upgrade your subscription here.
The Big Read
Medicine shortages recently reached record highs across Europe and hit a 10-year peak in the US last year, forcing countries to scramble for alternatives and patients to skip treatments. Off-patent generic medicines make up the backbone of pharmaceutical care, but manufacturing issues, weak supply chains and low pricing have combined to create a “broken market” that makes these treatments unattractive to produce and vulnerable to supply shocks, quality defects or surges in demand, say industry leaders and analysts.
We’re also reading . . .
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Free speech: In the tussle between good intentions and bad actors, society is in danger of losing sight of what it most needs to protect, writes Robert Shrimsley.
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War in Ukraine: As Russia advances, Kyiv is building 2,000km of fortifications to hold territory in anticipation of another offensive.
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Oppenheimer in flip flops: Silicon Valley has found a lucrative trade selling AI-powered weapons — and Anduril Industries founder Palmer Luckey is leading the way.
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Daniel Kahneman: The Nobel Prize-winning psychologist who wrote the bestselling book Thinking, Fast and Slow has died at 90.
Chart of the day
The EU has the most advanced green legislation in the world. But the bloc is not on track to meet its climate targets, even as it approaches deadlines for delivering detailed road maps on how it will achieve them. Here’s why.
Take a break from the news
From 80,000 narcissi at Anne Boleyn’s house in Kent to Tom Stuart-Smith’s garden at Yorkshire’s Hepworth Wakefield, HTSI recommends 10 gardens to visit if you’re in the UK this bank holiday weekend.
Additional contributions from Benjamin Wilhelm and Gordon Smith
Read the full article here