FirstFT: Iran oil exports hit 6-year high

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Good morning. We have an exclusive story on Iran’s oil exports reaching a six-year high and giving its economy a $35bn-a-year boost despite sanctions.

Tehran sold an average of 1.56mn barrels a day during the first three months of the year, almost all of it to China and its highest level since the third quarter of 2018, according to data company Vortexa.

Iran’s success in exporting its crude underscores the difficulties facing the US and the EU as they seek to build up pressure on Tehran following its missile and drone attack on Israel.

Washington and the EU are preparing new sanctions on the Islamic republic, in part to dissuade Israel from escalating the conflict with Tehran by retaliating. US Treasury secretary Janet Yellen admitted this week that Iran “clearly” continued to export its oil and that there was “more to do” to curb the trade. Here’s more on the limits of western attempts to rein in the Islamic republic.

• Market volatility: The Vix index, Wall Street’s so-called fear gauge, has hit 19.6, its highest level since Hamas’s October attack on Israel.

• Israelis split over Iran: While the public has overwhelmingly supported the war effort in Gaza, there is no such consensus over how to respond to Tehran’s drone-and-missile strike.

Here’s what else I’m keeping tabs on today:

• G20: The group’s finance ministers gather in Washington on the sidelines of the World Bank and IMF spring meetings.

• UK: Regulator Ofcom publishes a report on the media use and attitudes of parents and children.

• Companies: Blackstone and Netflix report results, while Deliveroo and easyJet have trading updates.

Five more top stories

1. Exclusive: One of the largest private western investors in Ukraine has accused the country’s officials of corruption, claiming they are trying to extort tens of millions of euros from him. Arnulf Damerau, an Anglo-German businessman and a former adviser to Glencore and Trafigura, told the Financial Times he was being blackmailed by a clique of senior Ukrainian officials. Read the full story.

• Ukraine funding: The US House of Representatives is expected to vote on sending additional aid on Saturday evening, in a move that could unlock critical support for Kyiv and end months of congressional inaction.

• Russian assets: US-backed proposals to use more than €260bn of frozen assets to fund Ukraine risk breaking international law, European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde has warned.

2. Exclusive: Michael Gove has insisted ground rents in England and Wales would eventually fall to nominal levels under his leasehold reforms as he accused Conservative opponents to the changes of acting like “rentier” capitalists defending broken markets. The housing secretary has struggled to push through legislation that would reform a system that currently allows landlords to kick out tenants without giving a reason. Read the FT’s full interview with Gove.

• UK politics: The House of Lords has insisted on further changes to the government’s flagship Rwanda asylum bill, dashing Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s hopes of the measure becoming law this week.

3. Brexit has “exacerbated” the UK’s drug shortage, which more than doubled between 2020 and 2023, according to new research. The Nuffield Trust said today that since leaving the EU in January 2020, the UK had faced “constantly elevated medicines shortages” including for key treatments such as antibiotics and epilepsy drugs. Here’s how Brexit contributed to the problem.

• UK economy: The IMF has urged the UK to take much tougher action to rein in public debt, putting a question mark over Sunak’s cuts to national insurance.

4. Exclusive: Western nations must engage dictators in Africa’s Sahel region, Tony Blair has warned, adding that failure to do so “will guarantee that instability reaches well beyond its borders”. The former UK prime minister’s think-tank published a report today calling for a “new compact” between the volatile area and the international community, as he told the FT “the risk of contagion” was real. Africa editor David Pilling has more.

• Sudan civil war: The world needs to stop ignoring a conflict that has killed thousands and left millions in desperate need of aid, writes Zeinab Badawi, president of Soas, University of London.

5. OpenAI’s latest artificial intelligence model has almost matched expert doctors in analysing eye conditions, according to a paper published yesterday. The Microsoft-backed start-up’s GPT-4 model surpassed or achieved the same scores as all but the top-scoring specialist medics in assessing ocular problems and suggesting treatments. Here’s more on the potential implications for medical treatments.

The Big Read

From Estonia to Lithuania, the Baltic states are busy adding bunkers, anti-tank obstacles and fences as part of a new defensive line on Nato’s eastern border with Russia. The works are a visible sign of how security in the military alliance’s frontline states is now determined by Russia’s war in Ukraine, with Baltic leaders seeing the tide turning in Moscow’s direction. Officials are concerned that Vladimir Putin could test the military alliance’s resolve with provocations — or even the “nightmare scenario” of an outright attack.

We’re also reading . . . 

• UK inflation: While Andrew Bailey has insisted Britain is “on track” to quell inflation, the Bank of England governor may find it uncomfortable to move faster than his US counterparts.

• Customer service: Claer Barrett investigates whether a shift to automation is really to blame for plunging customer satisfaction.

• Swedish market: A deep pool of retail and institutional investors has helped Stockholm attract listings and defy Europe’s capital markets gloom.

• Interest rates: The great bet on rate cuts is dead, writes Katie Martin. But how did markets and policymakers get inflation so wrong?

Want more insight into how rate-setters are fighting inflation? Sign up for our Central Banks newsletter by Chris Giles if you’re a premium subscriber, or upgrade your subscription here.

Chart of the day

Listed cryptocurrency miners are stockpiling bitcoin collectively worth about $2.8bn, a near-record amount. The companies hope the token will rise in value as supply is expected to drop when rewards for verifying deals are cut in half.

Take a break from the news

At the 44th London Marathon on Sunday, spectators will find themselves watching a 26.2-mile feat of fitness that looks a lot like a fashion show. For runners, the road has become the runway, writes Grace Cook, and a race is the perfect opportunity to peacock.

Additional contributions from Nora Redmond and Benjamin Wilhelm