Today’s agenda: Bets on US election volatility rise; American dock workers strike; EU warned against AI overregulation; Ukraine’s darkest hour; and Bretton Woods at a crossroads
Good morning. Just hours ago, Israel said it had launched “limited, localised, and targeted ground raids” in southern Lebanon. The raids were accompanied by renewed strikes in Beirut’s southern suburbs, while local media reported Israel had also struck Lebanon’s largest Palestinian refugee camp for the first time. Here’s what to expect.
Why a ground offensive? Israel has said the goal of the operations, which it added were backed by artillery and air support, is to return displaced Israeli residents to the country’s north. A person who has worked with Benjamin Netanyahu said the Israeli prime minister is also betting that holding Lebanese territory would give him political leverage in negotiations over a new status quo, whenever a ceasefire is reached.
How far will Israel go? Former senior Israeli security officials say the military is unlikely to attempt an invasion of a scale similar to Gaza. Instead, they expect the focus to be on the threat posed by Hizbollah’s anti-tank missiles on the border, degrading its firepower and on pushing the militant group’s forces north of Lebanon’s Litani river.
Officials have acknowledged the risks of protracted combat in terrain that Hizbollah knows inside out, and where Israel’s tech and intelligence advantages count for less. It would also raise the risk of direct hostilities with Iran. There are fears of an open-ended occupation of Lebanon’s border area, and US officials said Washington had sought to limit the scope and duration of the operations in talks with the Israeli government.
We have more details on the latest stage of Israel’s intensifying campaign, and more insight below into what this means for the region:
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Opinion: We are witnessing a substantial shift in the balance of power in the Middle East, writes John Sawers, former chief of Britain’s MI6.
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The FT View: As Israel prepares to mark the grim anniversary of Hamas’s horrific October 7 attack, Netanyahu should take his wins and chart a new course, writes our editorial board.
Scroll down for today’s featured graphic, which shows the Israeli military’s vast reach in the Middle East. And here’s our packed agenda for the rest of today:
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Economic data: Manufacturing purchasing managers’ indices are due for Canada, the Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy, the UK and the US. The EU also has flash inflation estimates.
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Europe: Strikes and protests are expected across France as Prime Minister Michel Barnier delivers his inaugural policy speech to the National Assembly. In Brussels, former Dutch premier Mark Rutte takes over from Jens Stoltenberg as secretary-general of Nato.
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Americas: Claudia Sheinbaum assumes office as Mexico’s first female president. In the US, vice-presidential hopefuls Tim Walz and JD Vance are set to debate tonight, while about 600 people are still missing in the wake of Hurricane Helene.
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Companies: Nationwide’s acquisition of Virgin Money UK and Thoma Bravo’s takeover of Darktrace are expected to take effect. Greggs has a trading update, while Nike and James Halstead report results.
Five more top stories
1. Investors are turning to complex derivatives trades as they seek to profit from an uncertain US presidential race, which remains extremely close with fewer than 30 trading days to go. Instead of predicting who will win, a growing number of investors are betting on volatility rising sharply in the coming weeks. More details here.
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US market: The White House race is turning America into an emerging market — full of peril and promise but most of all unpredictability, writes Rana Foroohar.
2. Ports along the US east and Gulf coasts shut down early today as about 25,000 dock workers went on strike for the first time in nearly five decades. Three dozen ports stretching from Maine to Texas were affected. The ports together handle one-quarter of the country’s international trade, worth $3tn a year, according to The Conference Board, which warned the work stoppage would “paralyse US trade”.
3. Exclusive: The chief executive of SAP has cautioned EU policymakers against over-regulating artificial intelligence and widening the already large gap with the US in the transformative yet nascent sector. Christian Klein told the Financial Times that if it was easier to test AI models in America, Europe would be at a “massive disadvantage”.
4. Exclusive: The UK media regulator will take “strong action” against tech companies that break new rules on content moderation, the agency’s head has told the FT, after internet activity that sparked violence across Britain in August. Ofcom chief Melanie Dawes said the UK’s Online Safety Act, which will largely come into force next year, gives the watchdog “some pretty strong powers”.
5. EY has appointed financial services boss Anna Anthony as its new UK managing partner after a three-way race to lead the accounting firm’s British and Irish businesses. She will become the first woman to permanently run a Big Four operation day-to-day in the UK when she takes up her new role in January. Here’s what we know about Anthony.
The Big Read
Ukraine is heading into what may be its darkest moment of the war so far. It is losing on the battlefield in the east of the country, with Russian forces advancing relentlessly and the prospect of winter energy shortages. As Volodymyr Zelenskyy returns home from the US, he faces an exhausted country and increasing pressure to find a negotiated settlement, with soldiers at the front fearing a “forever war”.
We’re also reading . . .
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Tory troubles: The Conservatives’ biggest problem? Age, writes Stephen Bush. The party needs to appeal to successful economically liberal graduates again.
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Opus Dei: Argentine prosecutors have accused the Catholic group’s senior leaders of overseeing the exploitation and trafficking of women.
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Bretton Woods: With the world in fresh crisis, bold action is again needed from the IMF and World Bank, writes former UN official Mark Malloch-Brown and others.
Graphic of the day
“There is no place in Iran or the Middle East that the long arm of Israel cannot reach,” Benjamin Netanyahu said last week. The prime minister demonstrated this on Sunday: Israel bombed Houthi sites 1,800km away in Yemen. A former official said the strike signalled that Israel had the capability to launch long-distance operations against Iran as well.
Take a break from the news
They say never to meet your heroes. What about revisiting former homes? Speaking from personal experience, Sophie Heawood advises against it: seeing what the new owners have done rarely works out well.
Additional contributions from Gordon Smith and Benjamin Wilhelm
Read the full article here