Good morning. We start with Nato, which has calculated that Europe has only a fraction of the air defence capabilities needed to protect its eastern flank, laying bare the scale of the continent’s vulnerabilities.
Russia’s war against Ukraine has underscored the importance of air defence, as Kyiv begs the west for additional systems and rockets to protect its cities, troops and energy grid against daily bombing raids.
But according to people familiar with confidential defence plans drawn up last year, Nato states are able to provide less than 5 per cent of air defence capacities deemed necessary to protect its members in central and eastern Europe against a full-scale attack.
Nato foreign ministers will gather in Prague today for two days of talks aimed at preparing for a summit of the alliance’s leaders in Washington in July, where beefing up European defence will be a central topic.
One senior Nato diplomat said ahead of today’s meeting of foreign ministers that the ability to defend against missiles and air strikes was “a major part of the plan to defend eastern Europe from invasion”, adding: “And right now, we don’t have that.” Read the full story.
Here’s what else I’m keeping tabs on today:
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Economic data: The second estimate of first-quarter economic growth is expected to be revised lower to 1.3 per cent from an advanced estimate of 1.6 per cent. New applications for unemployment aid and pending home sales in the US are also expected.
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Earnings: Discount retailer Dollar General reports on a big day for retailer results, which also includes Burlington Stores, Best Buy, Kohl’s Corporation, Foot Locker, Nordstrom, Costco and Gap. Dell, Birkenstock Royal Bank Canada and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce also publish earnings.
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Monetary policy: New York Fed president John Williams will deliver a speech at an event hosted by the Economic Club of New York. Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan will talk at the Borderplex Alliance event in El Paso, Texas.
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Boeing: The aircraft maker is expected to submit a new safety plan to the Federal Aviation Administration following a door panel blowout on a flight in January.
Five more top stories
1. UBS has shaken up its executive board and split responsibility for its all-important wealth management business between two of the managers most likely to succeed chief executive Sergio Ermotti. Under the changes, wealth management head Iqbal Khan will move to Asia and become head of Asia-Pacific, while investment bank head Rob Karofsky will become head of the Americas. Read more on the reshuffle in the top ranks of UBS.
2. The Chinese army’s newest recruit is a robot dog made by a start-up with funding from big venture capital firms. The debut of the robo-dog, which the army has equipped with an assault rifle that it can fire, was a “major highlight” of joint exercises carried out by the People’s Liberation Army and Cambodia this month, according to Chinese state television. Here’s more on the PLA’s latest recruit.
3. The US government is nearing an agreement to bankroll a late-stage trial of Moderna’s mRNA pandemic bird flu vaccine, hoping to bolster its pandemic jab stockpile as a H5N1 outbreak spreads through egg farms and among cattle herds. Bird flu has been detected on poultry farms in 48 states and in dairy cow herds across nine states as part of one of the worst outbreaks in recent history. The federal funding could come as early as next month, according to people close to the discussions.
4. Jurors weighing Donald Trump’s fate have asked to review trial testimony and be reminded of the judge’s instructions on the law. As their first day of deliberations in the former US president’s “hush money” case concluded without a verdict, the seven men and five women also asked to review evidence by tabloid publisher David Pecker and former Trump fixer Michael Cohen.
5. OpenAI is struggling to contain internal rows about its leadership and safety as the divisions that led to last year’s attempted coup against chief executive Sam Altman spill back into the public domain. A series of high-profile resignations point to continuing rifts inside OpenAI between those who want to develop AI rapidly and those who would prefer a more cautious approach.
Today’s Big Read
As China pares back loans to Africa, the United Arab Emirates has become an increasingly important source of foreign investment. The Emirates has consistently been a top-four investor on the continent over the past decade and it is now “going toe to toe with Beijing” as companies from the UAE embrace projects in Africa that the more risk-averse investors are avoiding. This wall of money is allowing the UAE to help shape not only their countries’ economic destinies, but in some cases the political fortunes of some African leaders.
We’re also reading and listening to . . .
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US politics: Unless Joe Biden can change the narrative, Donald Trump could well be the first felon to reach the White House, argues Edward Luce.
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Argentina: Last week’s event to mark the launch of Javier Milei’s new book felt exactly like his bizarre campaign rallies, writes Ciara Nugent in Buenos Aires.
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Working It 🎧: Is “personality” a good enough reason to hire someone? Isabel Berwick speaks to social media strategist Bella Rose Mortel to find out.
Chart of the day
The African National Congress appeared on course to lose its outright majority for the first time since the start of multiparty elections in South Africa 30 years ago that followed the end of apartheid. With 16 per cent of the national vote counted, the ANC was on 42.5 per cent, according to South Africa’s Council for Scientific and Industrial Research. Rob Rose and David Pilling in Johannesburg have the latest on the election.
Take a break from the news
Nicolas Berggruen, once known as “the homeless billionaire”, is putting down roots in Venice. With his purchase of the Palazzo Malipiero last year, the German-American investor and philanthropist is emerging as a modern-day Medici, writes James Reginato. It’s all part of his plan to change the world with big ideas.
Additional contributions from George Russell and Benjamin Wilhelm
Read the full article here