FirstFT: What to expect as America votes

Today’s agenda: Ukraine fights North Korean troops; Palantir shares surge; Germany’s economic crisis; the US election in seven charts; and Israel’s plan to reshape the Middle East

Good morning. Today, Americans face a choice between starkly contrasting visions set forth by Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, a decision that could mark their country, and the world, for decades. Here’s what to expect as America votes.

What could decide the election: The seven swing states are the most important. Both candidates have spent the final hours of their campaign seeking votes in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. The Financial Times poll tracker shows a statistical tie between Harris and Trump in all of them.

The gender split could also tip the scales. Polls show women have been flocking to Harris on the back of her vows to protect reproductive freedom. Investors reined in bets on a Trump win yesterday after a poll showed her unexpectedly leading in Republican-leaning Iowa — partly from a late surge in support from female voters. But men have increasingly turned to Trump, who has tapped male anxieties and grievances, as well as traditional concerns about immigration and the economy.

What to look out for as results come in: Expect a long evening. Polls will start closing at 6pm Eastern time (11pm GMT), with the last polls closing at midnight ET in Alaska. News agencies will project results for each state, not just for the presidency but also for races in the House of Representatives and Senate. Only 270 of the 538 electoral college votes are needed to clinch the presidency, so not all states have to be called for a winner to emerge.

But we may not have a clear result for several days. Each of the swing states counts votes at different speeds, with Arizona, for instance, estimating it could take 10-13 days to report full results. Razor-thin margins could lead to recounts, and legal challenges could drag out the process.

• A country on edge: Law enforcement agencies are braced for civil unrest after a campaign season characterised by “unprecedented” levels of violent rhetoric.

• Corporate America: The outcome will have big consequences for companies spanning energy, cars and pharmaceuticals.

• Economic in-tray: Mohamed El-Erian details five crucial economic areas the incoming president needs to tackle.

We’ll have real-time updates and analysis from our reporters on the ground as the results unfold — check out our live blog on FT.com later today. And make sure you’re signed up to receive our US election newsletter, with editions both today and tomorrow. Here’s what else I’m keeping tabs on today:

• EU: The bloc’s finance ministers meet in Brussels to discuss aid for Ukraine, legislation on value added tax and the climate.

• Results: Asos, Associated British Foods, Hugo Boss, Ørsted, Saudi Aramco and Thomson Reuters report.

Five more top stories

1. Ukrainian officials said yesterday that their forces had fired at North Korean soldiers for the first time since their deployment by Russia to its western Kursk region. The clashes mark the first direct intervention by a foreign army since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022. We have more updates.

2. Shares in Palantir Technologies surged as much as 15 per cent in after-hours trading yesterday as Peter Thiel’s data analytics group reported record quarterly income and raised its revenue forecast, citing high demand for its artificial intelligence software. Read the full story.

3. Taiwan’s soaring energy prices and growing outages are affecting TSMC, the world’s largest chipmaker. Following a series of price increases, the company now expects to pay more for power in its home country than anywhere else. Here’s how Taiwan’s shaky energy transition is straining its industry.

4. Demand for personal protection for executives is rising as companies are increasingly targeted by protesters, according to the head of one of the world’s biggest private security groups. Allied Universal chief Steve Jones said businesses linked to Israel, defence and energy were more likely to seek additional security.

5. Germany’s deputy chancellor has made a major concession in talks on next year’s budget amid fears that a simmering row over the spending plan could bring down the country’s fragile coalition government. Robert Habeck said €7bn in government subsidies previously earmarked for a new Intel chip factory could now be used to plug a hole in the budget, adding now was “the worst possible time for the government to fail”.

The Big Read

Over the past three years, Europe’s largest economy has slowly but steadily sunk into crisis. Germany has seen no meaningful quarterly real GDP growth since late 2021, and annual GDP is poised to shrink for the second year in a row, with the car, chemicals and engineering sectors all in a slump. What is happening right now is “unprecedented”, one analyst said, and “of a completely different order of magnitude” from previous crises.

We’re also reading . . . 

• Israel unbound: Buoyed by military gains, Benjamin Netanyahu now wants to dismantle Iran’s forces across the Middle East and reshape the region.

• Chinese property: After a more than three-year slowdown, there are some signs of life in the country’s real estate market. But interviews in six cities show there are lingering doubts about its longer-term prospects.

• Argentina: Billions of dollars of judgments and claims in international courts are piling pressure on President Javier Milei’s cash-strapped government.

• Trade policy: Politicians reach easily for tariffs, but problems such as climate change and inequality have more effective but less popular solutions, writes economist Minouche Shafik.

Chart of the day

The frenzied contest between Trump and Harris, and Joe Biden before her, has generated reams of data, shedding light on US public opinion and voter attitudes on everything from the economy and foreign policy to the candidates’ character. Here are seven charts that have defined the 2024 presidential election.

Take a break from the news

Whether you’re looking for a city break, cottage hideaway, beach or rail adventure, HTSI’s autumn travel guide is here to satisfy your wanderlust.