Ken Moelis predicts the death of the M&A banker

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One scoop to start: HSBC is reviewing its retail banking operations outside the UK and Hong Kong, a move that could see it substantially scale back operations in countries including Mexico, as it seeks further cost cuts.

And a slap on the wrist: Cantor Fitzgerald, the brokerage led by Donald Trump’s commerce secretary nominee Howard Lutnick, has been sued by the US Securities and Exchange Commission for allegedly making misleading statements to investors in the lead-up to two public offerings that raised $750mn.

In today’s newsletter:

  • Moelis’s vision for the future of Wall Street

  • Outright ‘family feud’ for Murdoch empire

  • The courtroom battle ahead for Thames Water

Death of the M&A banker

Who doesn’t love a good freewheeling vibe check from Ken Moelis.

At Goldman Sachs’ annual financial conference this week, the founder of the eponymous boutique bank didn’t disappoint in his hot takes on Wall Street.

Moelis, who cut his teeth at Drexel, weighed in on how the blow-up of big banks in 2008 not only created fertile ground for the golden age of private credit, but why he thinks firms like his are going to clean up as a result.

In case you’re not familiar with Moelis’s background: he went to Wharton in the early 1980s and came up through the House of Milken alongside Apollo Global Management chief executive Marc Rowan.

He’s been around the block on Wall Street. Before he started his own boutique bank, Moelis had stints at Drexel, DLJ, Credit Suisse and UBS. He started his own shop at the beginning of the financial crisis — which turned out to be fortuitous timing.

His comments at the Goldman conference were such a gold mine that our friends at FT Alphaville teamed up with DD’s Sujeet Indap to publish an unedited, annotated transcript. But it’s just so good we decided to distil some of the highlights ourselves, too.

Point #1: Private equity is passé. The big alternative investment managers know that their real future is in private debt.

If you go to the big managers like KKR and Blackstone, “none of them are talking about private equity”.

Point #2: Huge fees can be made brokering non-M&A deals, especially in private credit.

Take the $1.5bn preferred debt in a deal Moelis just sourced for a direct lender (which has yet to be announced, so he didn’t name the deal). Moelis is being paid about $30mn in fees for that transaction.

“So it’s M&A type fees for coming up with capital for the other parts of the firm,” he said. “So again, I think people are underestimating these large chunks of capital.”

Point #3: The next generation of rainmakers could specialise in capital markets. That’s at least how Moelis — the bank — is positioning itself.

“I’ve been very much pushing our capital markets [coverage] to make sure [our bankers are] in that market,” he said. “I think it’s going to explode and it’s not going to be easy to get the talent.”

He added: “Some of them just want to be M&A advisers.” But they might be poorer for it.

Which Murdoch will control the media empire?

The Murdoch family drama has reached new levels of dysfunction.

Sources close to various members of the Murdoch clan told the FT this week that a courtroom battle over the $40bn media empire has resulted in an all-out “family feud”.

A brief catch-up: Rupert Murdoch attempted a coup against his own children in order to consolidate power around his eldest son, Lachlan, when the 93-year-old dies.

Siblings James, Elizabeth and Prudence were infuriated by Rupert’s move to amend were infuriated by his move to amend an “irrevocable trust” that had been established decades ago, giving them equal control over the family empire when their father is gone.

The dispute comes at the same time that media giants all over the US are recalibrating their business models with the advent of streaming.

(Warner Bros Discovery, for instance, unveiled plans yesterday to split apart its television networks from its streaming and studios businesses — confirming an FT scoop from over the summer).

But back to Murdoch: the tug of war came to a head in a courtroom proceeding in Reno, Nevada in September.

The hearing took place in total secrecy, but the probate commissioner this week made his decision, which was then leaked to The New York Times and confirmed by the FT.

The Nevada court has resoundingly struck down Rupert Murdoch’s attempt to change the trust.

It was a definitive win for James, Elisabeth and Prudence. But sources say Rupert and Lachlan are expected to appeal against the decision.

The chaos has left bankers and analysts gaming out what could happen to the assets at stake: notably Fox Corp, the owner of Fox News, which is worth $20bn on the public stock market, and News Corp, which owns The Wall Street Journal.

Some think Rupert may simply sell off his remaining businesses rather than leave them in limbo between his feuding children.

The rumour has been that James, who has spoken out against the politics of Fox News, might try to take over the network upon his father’s death and tilt its slant.

Two sources close to the situation, however, told the FT that was unlikely. One person close to James said: “He’s smart enough to know that if he repositions Fox News it’s as good as dead.”

Thames Water’s looming courtroom showdown

When you imagine a high-stakes battle in London’s high court, you probably picture a heated argument taking place in a grand oak-panelled room with deep vermilion carpets.

In reality, most complex commercial cases end up being heard in the Rolls Building, which is more akin to a slightly tired conference centre than the palatial Royal Courts of Justice down the road.

Despite the slightly mundane setting, Thames Water’s so-called convening hearing next Tuesday will be high on drama.

The UK’s largest water supplier, which provides water and sewerage services to 16mn customers in and around London, is drowning in nearly £19bn of debt and running perilously short on funds.

The troubled utility is heading to court in a bid to win approval to raise an emergency loan of up to £3bn from its top-ranking bondholders. 

It says the loan will keep the lights on long enough to hopefully raise new equity and avoid crashing into the UK’s special administration scheme (a temporary nationalisation, in effect).

Thames Water’s lower-ranking bondholders are looking to gatecrash proceedings, however, and propose their own £3bn loan plan that they argue will save the company substantial costs.

The so-called class B bondholders certainly aren’t messing around, having enlisted litigators at Quinn Emanuel — whose partners carry business cards emblazoned with “The most feared law firm in the world” — to steer their legal challenge through the courts.

Whatever the judge decides, there’ll certainly be one winner: the lawyers and financial advisers earning substantial fees.

Job moves

  • XRG, a new company created by Adnoc to invest in global energy assets, has brought Bernard Looney on to its board of directors. The two other foreign members of the board will be Jonathan Gray, the president of Blackstone, and Egyptian entrepreneur Nassef Sawiris. Looney was previously the chief executive of BP.

  • The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s head of the markets group Michelle Neal is resigning for a role in the private sector. Anna Nordstrom, who leads domestic and international markets function, will replace her on an interim basis. 

  • Michele Buck, the president and chief executive of The Hershey Company, is joining the board of directors of JPMorgan Chase. She was previously a director at Kraft and started her career at PepsiCo.

Smart reads

Corporate medicine Health insurers and hospitals are treating patients less like humans who need care and more like consumers who generate profit, The New Yorker writes.

China pullback Companies such as Apple and Starbucks had grand dreams of expanding into China, The Economist writes. With slowing economic growth, more competition and geopolitical tensions, those hopes are waning.

Telecoms revival The recent approval of the Vodafone and Three merger suggests something may have shifted for competition authorities when it comes to the telecoms sector, Lex writes.

News round-up

De La Rue in talks over stake with Edi Truell-backed investors (FT)

Private equity group EQT backs six-a-side football competition (FT)

Rio Tinto to invest $2.5bn in latest commitment to lithium (FT)

Selfridges’ Thai co-owner says it overpaid for luxury store portfolio (FT)

Trafigura says Swiss prosecutors in bribery case were on a political ‘crusade’ (FT)

US media groups warn UK over AI content-scraping rules (FT)

British hedge fund trader jailed in Denmark over ‘cum-ex’ tax fraud (FT)

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