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Ryanair has been forced to cut its forecast for passenger numbers for a second time, as delivery delays from Boeing continue to dent its growth ambitions.
Europe’s largest low-cost airline on Monday said it expected to carry 206mn passengers in its next fiscal year, which begins in April, down from a previous estimate of 210mn.
The airline had already revised down the target because of problems at Boeing, lowering its forecast from 215mn to 210mn passengers in November.
“While Boeing 737 production is recovering from Boeing’s strike in late 2024, we no longer expect Boeing to deliver sufficient aircraft ahead of summer 2025,” said Ryanair chief executive Michael O’Leary.
Ryanair is Boeing’s largest customer in Europe and has seen its growth plans dented by the crisis at the US manufacturer.
Over the past year, Boeing has suffered from a damaging strike and has had to slow production lines to improve manufacturing processes following a mid-air door panel blowout on a jet last January.
Still, Ryanair’s chief financial officer Neil Sorahan said he believed “things are improving operationally” at Boeing’s factories, following a trip to the US this month. “Hopefully they are turning the corner,” he said.
Boeing is 38 planes behind its original delivery agreement with Ryanair for its 737 Max 8, and the airline still needs another nine planes before the summer season to be able to hit its scaled-back growth plans.
Sorahan said he was confident in those deliveries and that Boeing would be able to catch up with the delivery schedule next winter.
For its current financial year, Ryanair “cautiously” forecast profit after tax of between €1.55bn and €1.61bn, down from €1.92bn a year earlier but ahead of analyst forecasts.
Demand for travel for the key summer season has looked strong, Sorahan said, although he cautioned it was still too early to make meaningful financial forecasts.
Ryanair reported a profit after tax of €149mn for its third quarter, compared with €15mn a year earlier, after passenger numbers and fares rose thanks to a strong run of festive bookings, particularly from travellers booking at the last minute.
But the airline warned the current quarter would be tougher, largely because of a late Easter, which falls in April this year.
Ryanair said it would allocate its “scarce capacity growth” to countries that are cutting or abolishing aviation taxes to incentivise traffic growth.
This does not include the UK, where Ryanair has long complained about the levels of taxation on flying.
Sorahan said it was “contradictory” for the government to encourage airport expansion while raising taxes on the sector.
Ryanair had threatened to pull capacity away from the UK following the Budget, but Sorahan said its flight schedules for the summer would be roughly flat year on year.
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