Week Ahead: Keir Starmer flies into controversy and Japan goes to the polls

Hello and welcome to the working week.

Have you ever looked at your diary with dread as a difficult family gathering approaches? Then you will appreciate the emotions that various political leaders, economists and central bankers might be feeling as they fly off to international summits this week.

British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer faces a gruelling 36-hour flight to attend the Commonwealth heads of government meeting, which begins on Monday in Samoa. It’s the first time in the institution’s 75-year history that the gathering has been held in the Pacific Islands. Starmer is likely to be flying into a political storm, with contenders for the Commonwealth secretary-general post telling FT reporters they will be raising the contentious issue of reparations for slavery.

Head of the Commonwealth King Charles III will be visiting the Pacific Island state too, albeit a bit later. He has to wrap up a tour of Australia with Queen Camilla — where he has been spending a few days trying to sidestep questions about his future as head of state — before joining Commonwealth heads of government for a formal dinner and reception on Friday. With the UK’s relative global importance in decline, King Charles’s challenge in Samoa will be to give fresh energy to the Commonwealth.

Another big gathering this week will take place across the world, in Washington, where the IMF and World Bank’s annual meetings have rolled round again. Important diary items include the IMF putting out its global economic outlook on Tuesday and its fiscal report card on Wednesday. The outlook is unlikely to be rosy, given last week’s comments by the fund’s managing director Kristalina Georgieva.

We are approaching the end of this record year for elections, but still they keep coming. One poll that was not on the list at the start of the year is happening on Sunday: Japan’s snap general election. The ballot was called by new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba after he replaced Fumio Kishida as head of the ruling Liberal Democratic party last month. For more on this election gamble, read this excellent analysis by FT Tokyo bureau chief Leo Lewis.

Earnings reports also continue apace, coming this week from sectors including advertising, airlines and European banks. The most notable will be from US tech companies, in particular Tesla, whose challenges now include selling the robotaxi concept.

Economic data is the one area that’s a bit thin on the ground this week, mostly consisting of consumer confidence surveys. The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) figures will probably be the most closely watched. More details below.

One more thing . . . 

We are just over a week away from the UK’s big fiscal event, the Budget, on October 30. This one will be particularly significant because so much of what the UK’s new Labour government wants to achieve hangs on its ability to both show prudence with the public finances and spend money fixing public services. The FT is (as ever) ahead of the game, this time with an actual game, to see if you can run the UK economy better than chancellor Rachel Reeves. Enjoy.

Thank you to all who suggested albums, groups and individual musical pieces to broaden my musical horizons after my comments last week. My Spotify playlist is looking a lot more eclectic, which is the way I like it.

Thank you also to those who suggested the highlights of your working week. If you have a suggestion, email me at [email protected] or, if you are reading this in your inbox, hit reply.

Key economic and company reports

Here is the more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• China: one-year loan prime rate decision

• Germany: September producer price index (PPI) for industrial products

• UK: October Rightmove House Price Index

• Results: City of London Investment Group Q1 funds under management update, WR Berkley Q3, Hollywood Bowl FY trading statement, Logitech Q2, SAP Q3

Tuesday

• IMF publishes its latest World Economic Outlook, a twice yearly analysis and projections of economic prospects for the global economy, plus its Global Financial Stability Report.

• Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey and US Securities and Exchange Commission chair Gary Gensler give keynote speeches at the Bloomberg Global Regulatory Forum in New York.

• UK: September public sector finances data

• US: September unemployment data

• Results: 3M Q3, AO Smith Q3, Canadian National Railway Q3, Danaher Q3, Deutsche Boerse Q3, Freeport-McMoRan Q3, GE Aerospace Q3, General Motors Q3, Halfords HY trading update, InterContinental Hotels Q3 trading update, Interpublic Group Q3, Invesco Q3, Kimberly-Clark Q3, Lockheed Martin Q3, Moody’s Q3, Nucor Q3, Philip Morris International Q3, Randstad Q3, Seagate Technology Q1, Sherwin-Williams Q3, Texas Instruments Q3, Verizon Communications Q3

Wednesday

• Tokyo Metro shares are expected to commence trading on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

• European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde speaks on Europe’s economic outlook at an event hosted by US think-tank Atlantic Council.

• Canada: interest rate decision

• EU: October consumer confidence index

• US: Federal Reserve Beige Book published

• Results: Akzo Nobel Q3, AT&T Q3, Baker Hughes Q3, Barratt Redrow AGM and trading update, Coca-Cola Company Q3, Deutsche Bank Q3, Fresnillo Q3 production report, General Dynamics Q3, Heathrow Q3, Heineken Q3 trading update, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Q3, Hochschild Mining Q3 production report, Iberdrola Q3, IBM Q3, Lloyds Banking Group Q3 interim management statement, Mattel Q3, Northern Trust Q3, Packaging Corp of America Q3, PensionBee Q3 trading update, Reckitt Benckiser Q3 trading update, Tesla Q3, T-Mobile US Q3, Western Union Q3, WPP Q3 trading update

Thursday

• IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva gives a press briefing on the Global Policy Agenda, identifying the policy challenges faced by the IMF membership and proposing policy responses

• EU, France, Germany, India, Japan, UK, US: flash S&P Global/HCOB manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data

• Results: Abrdn Q3 trading statement, American Airlines Q3, Anglo American Q3 production report, Barclays Q3, Beiersdorf Q3, Bloomsbury Publishing HY, Bunzl Q3 trading statement, Canon Q3, Capital One Financial Q3, Dassault Systèmes Q3, Dow Q3, Dunelm Q1 trading update, Equinor Q3, Foxtons Q3, Hartford Financial Services Q3, Hasbro Q3, Honeywell International Q3, Inchcape Q3 trading update, London Stock Exchange Q3 trading update, Nasdaq Q3, Northrop Grumman Q3, Orange Q3, Relx trading update, S&P Global Q3, SK Hynix Q3, Sodexo FY, Southwest Airlines Q3, Travis Perkins Q3 trading update, Unilever Q3 trading update, Union Pacific Q3, United Parcel Service Q3, Weyerhaeuser Q3

Friday

• France: INSEE consumer confidence survey

• Germany: Ifo October Business Climate Index

• Japan: September services producer price index (PPI) inflation rate data

• UK: GfK consumer confidence survey

• US: University of Michigan October consumer survey

• Results: Aon Q3, Centene Q3, Colgate-Palmolive Q3, Electrolux Q3, Eni Q3, Mercedes-Benz Q3, NatWest Q3, Norwegian Air Q3, Proximus Q3, Sanofi Q3

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• Colombia: 2024 United Nations Biodiversity Conference begins in Cali, running until November 1.

• Samoa: the Commonwealth heads of government meeting 2024 begins in Apia, Samoa, the first to take place on a developing Pacific Island. The event runs until Saturday.

• Singapore: the Singapore International Energy Week begins with speakers including industry executives and energy ministers from Tanzania, Cambodia, Laos, Australia and New Zealand, discussing energy security and transition plans. The event runs until Friday.

• US: IMF and World Bank annual meetings week begins in Washington.

Tuesday

• Russia: Brics summit opens in Kazan, hosted by Russian President Vladimir Putin and attended by leaders of the Brics nations, including Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Chinese President Xi Jinping and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa. The event runs until Thursday.

Wednesday

Thursday

• France: President Emmanuel Macron hosts an international conference in support of Lebanon in Paris.

• US: G20 finance ministers and central bank governors working dinner as part of this week’s IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington

• Montserrat: parliamentary elections

Friday

Saturday

Sunday

• European and British Summer Time end. Clocks go back one hour.

• Bulgaria: parliamentary elections

• Japan: snap general election

• Lithuania: parliamentary elections run-off

• Uruguay: presidential and parliamentary elections

• Uzbekistan: parliamentary elections