XRP yet to ‘price in’ 3 bullish catalysts, Bitcoin to $80K? Trade Secrets

Bitcoin holds ground as rate cut hopes fade

Bitcoin’s price is holding firm despite the market losing faith in more rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve, according to Kraken chief economist Thomas Perfumo.

“Bitcoin has remained range-bound even as rate expectations have shifted meaningfully,” Perfumo tells Magazine.

Perfumo pointed out that not long ago, crypto traders were pricing in three Fed rate cuts by the end of 2026. He said that outlook has since flipped due to rising geopolitical tensions — particularly the conflict in Iran — that have pushed crude oil higher, along with mounting inflation fears and yield levels.

“The long end of the curve is responding; the 10-year Treasury yield hit fresh year-to-date highs above 4.4%,” he says.

Higher interest rates are typically a bearish signal for risk assets such as Bitcoin, as safer instruments such as bonds and term deposits become more attractive to investors. The Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75% during March. 

“Now, US Fed Funds futures imply zero rate cuts for the remainder of 2026, with a notable probability of a hike,” he adds.

Higher lows are a bullish sign

Crypto analysts are split on Bitcoin’s near-term outlook. MN Trading Capital founder Michael van de Poppe said that Bitcoin’s structure is leaning bullish for now, based on the asset “constantly” printing higher lows.

“It doesn’t say that we’re out of the woods entirely, as those higher lows trigger a lot of liquidity if the markets get there,” he said in an X post. 

Bitcoin is trading at $68,895 at the time of writing, according to CoinMarketCap.

Van de Poppe says that as long as Bitcoin holds around this level, the asset’s price should move back up toward $80,000.

Meanwhile, crypto analyst Jelle said that Bitcoin’s repeated struggle to reclaim and hold above $70,000 could lead to a more aggressive downtrend. “Bulls want to see this reclaim sooner than later: rejecting again would likely mean a cascade down — back to the low $60Ks,” Jelle said.

Bitcoin reached a yearly low near $60,000 on Feb. 6.

XRP has not ‘fully priced in’ these three catalysts: Exec

XRP’s price could be gearing up for a stronger move upwards, according to Yellow chairman Alexis Sirkia, who argues the market is still underestimating several bullish catalysts for the asset.

“Three things happened in the XRP ecosystem this month that the market has not yet fully priced in, and they each tell a different part of the same story,” Sirkia tells Magazine.

Sirkia flagged the recent SEC-CFTC crypto classification as a significant bullish signal. “The doors that were previously closed to pension funds, asset managers, and bank treasuries are now open, and the question shifts to what they will find when they walk through them,” Sirkia said.

He also points to XRP Ledger’s “quiet transformation” into a compliance-grade tokenization layer.“Six protocol upgrades over the past two years, including on-chain identity verification, asset clawback mechanisms, and a permissioned DEX, have rebuilt the ledger from the inside out,” he says.

‘Price often follows utility,’ says exec

The third catalyst he pointed out is the relationship between Ripple USD, the ecosystem’s stablecoin, and XRP itself, which is “still widely misread as competition.”

“A fast, low-cost settlement layer and a stable unit of account are not rivals. They are like two sides of the same coin. The more RLUSD grows, the more the underlying settlement infrastructure gets used, creating a feedback loop,” he says.

“Price often follows utility, but rarely on the schedule that impatient markets expect,” he says.

Bitcoin whales are holding off for more clarity: Santiment

Large Bitcoin holders are staying on the sidelines, holding off on adding to their positions until there’s greater regulatory clarity and geopolitical tensions ease, according to crypto analytics platform Santiment.

“Bitcoin’s whale activity has become historically quiet as key stakeholders await clarity (literally) from the CLARITY Act, as well as long-term finality to the war,” Santiment said in an X post.

Weekly Bitcoin transfers above $100,000 dropped to 6,417 for the week ending Mar. 22 — the lowest since September 2023. Daily transfers above $1 million came in at just 1,485, also marking their weakest level since October 2024.

“This has little to do with bullish or bearish indication of what’s to come,” Santiment said. What it signals is that smart money is in the same boat as smaller retail holders at the moment and has been reluctant to make moves amid so much policy and global uncertainty.

Sentiment indicators reflect caution

Market indicators suggest investors are still taking a cautious approach to the crypto market.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures overall crypto market sentiment, has been in “Extreme Fear” territory since Mar. 20.

Meanwhile, CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index suggests the market is warming up to cryptocurrencies down the risk curve, reading a “Bitcoin Season” score of 48 out of 100, up 13 points over the past 30 days. 

The Index flicks between “Bitcoin Season” and “Altcoin Season” based on the performance of the top 100 altcoins relative to Bitcoin over the past 90 days.

What are the Prediction Markets saying?

Prediction market traders aren’t betting on a big end-of-month surge for Bitcoin, but they’re not expecting it to completely tank either.

The odds of Bitcoin ending March above $70,000 are sitting at 35%, and the odds of it falling below its yearly low of $60,000 over the coming days are only 4%.

Most aren’t betting it will hit its all-time high again by the end of the year.

Bitcoin’s chances of reclaiming the $120,000 level in 2026 has fallen 2% from the last Trade Secret’s edition to 20%, with just a 10% chance of the asset reaching above $150,000.

Pundits are still backing the idea of a Christmas rally, with December tipped as the strongest month of 2026 at 16%, followed by October and November at 15% each.

Meanwhile, the weakest stretch is already out of the way, with January coming in at just 1%.