Stock market today: Live updates

Morgan Stanley named Spotify Technology a top pick, saying that shares should get a lift from the industry’s superstar year. Shares gained 2.4% on Thursday.

Shares of the company have nearly doubled this year, and could rally another 21% when taking into account higher engagement and ongoing innovation, wrote analyst Benjamin Swinburne.

Read more on the call from Morgan Stanley here.

— Samantha Subin

The chance that the Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark overnight lending rate another quarter point — to 5.50%-5.75% — by the end of this year climbed to 35.7% from 26.3% yesterday, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The move follows the release of September’s consumer price index, which matched economists’ estimates when stripping out food and energy costs.

The revised view, at least as derived from interest rate traders, came in the Fed’s Dec. 13 policy meeting. Odds of an increase at the next Fed Open Market Committee meeting on Nov. 1 rose to just 12.6% Thursday from 9.1% Wednesday,

The probability is extrapolated from 30-day fed funds futures pricing data on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

— Scott Schnipper

Major stock indexes opened slightly higher on Thursday, after the latest consumer price index came out higher than expected.

— Pia Singh

First Solar shares jumped more than 3% before the bell after Barclays upgraded the solar stock to an overweight rating.

“In an environment where there is uncertainty around the trajectory of utility-scale growth, we think FSLR’s contracted backlog, domestic content advantages and current valuation offers an attractive entry point,” wrote analyst Christine Cho.

Read more on the upgrade from the Wall Street firm here.

— Samantha Subin

The consumer price index rose, a widely followed measure of inflation, rose 0.4% in September. That was higher than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for a 0.3% increase. It also rose 3.7% year over year, exceeding a 3.6% forecast.

So-called core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, was in line with expectations. It rose 0.3% month over month and 4.1% on a 12-month basis.

— Fred Imbert

Check out some of the companies making headlines in premarket trading:

• Ford — Shares of the automaker slipped 2.3% after the United Auto Workers union expanded its strike to target Ford’s SUV and pickup truck facility in Kentucky, which is the company’s largest facility measured by both revenue and workforce.
• Target — The retailer rose 2.8% after Bank of America upgraded Target to buy from neutral. The bank said Target’s stock looks attractive after a recent slide and that the company’s margins could improve in the year ahead.
• Walgreens Boots Alliance — Shares of the retail pharmacy giant fell nearly 3% after the company missed earnings estimates for the fiscal fourth quarter, as demand for Covid vaccines and tests plummets in the U.S. Walgreens also offered soft profit guidance for the full year.

Read the full list here.

— Brian Evans

Shares of Walgreens Boots Alliance dropped more than 3% after the company reported quarterly results that beat revenue expectations, but missed earnings estimates as demand for Covid vaccines and tests lowered in the U.S. Here’s what Walgreens reported premarket:

• Earnings per share: 67 cents adjusted vs. 69 cents expected
• Revenue: $35.42 billion vs. $34.78 billion expected

This marks the second straight quarter that the retail pharmacy giant has underperformed Wall Street’s adjusted earnings expectations. Read more on the earnings here.

— Pia Singh, Annika Kim Constantino

Delta Air Lines traded more than 2% higher in the premarket after the airline delivered third-quarter earnings that beat analyst expectations.

The company earned an adjusted $2.03 per share, exceeding an LSEG estimate of $1.95 per share. Delta’s bottom line was also 60% higher from the year-earlier period thanks to strong travel demand.

— Fred Imbert, Leslie Josephs

— Michael Wayland, Fred Imbert

Shares of Domino’s Pizza fell more than 2% in the premarket after the pizza delivery chain released its third-quarter results. The company earned $4.18 per share versus $2.78 per share in the year-earlier period. To be sure, the company’s U.S. comparable sales fell 0.6%. Analysts polled by StreetAccount expected sales to remain flat.

The S&P 500 is down nearly 2% over the past month despite riding a four-day winning streak. However, Societe Generale thinks this is a buying opportunity.

“Buy the dip in the S&P 500,” wrote Stephen Gallagher, the bank’s U.S. head of research. “Micro drivers are strong and should speed up the profit cycle over the next six months before the start of a consumer downturn. Overweight S&P 500 vs Russell 2000, Long Nasdaq Equal Weighted on US-10yr yield consolidation.”

— Fred Imbert, Michael Bloom

European stock markets opened higher Thursday, with the Stoxx 600 index up 0.6% at 8:10 a.m. London time.

Germany’s DAX gained 0.5%, while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 and France’s CAC 40 were both around 0.6% higher.

Exxon Mobil’s acquisition of shale rival Pioneer Natural Resources is the largest oil and gas merger in a decade, and “one for the record books,” says Raymond James’ managing director and equity research analyst Pavel Molchanov.

On Wednesday, Exxon Mobil said it agreed to buy Pioneer Natural Resources for $59.5 billion in an all-stock deal, or $253 per share. The deal marks Exxon’s biggest since it bought Mobil, and is expected to close in the first half of 2024.

While it’s a “good deal” for Exxon from a historical valuation perspective, Molchanov noted that it’s important to also recognize that Exxon’s own stock has been trading at a much lower valuation than it used to.

Exxon estimated its production volume in the Permian Basin would more than double to 1.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.

“It’s no coincidence that the Permian is the focus of his deal,” said Molchanov, elaborating how it is the “most prolific and economically attractive basins.”

Pioneer shares were up 1.44% at the close, while Exxon’s slipped 3.58%.

—Lee Ying Shan, Fred Imbert

India is slated to release its inflation numbers for September later Thursday, with Reuters’ analysts forecasting a 5.5% year-on-year climb.

The projected reading would compare to a 6.83% rise in August, driven largely by food prices.

“An easing in food and fuel inflation likely drove a softening in the headline rate,” a Barclays report dated early October forecasts.

That being said, the slower inflation print may still be insufficient for India’s central bank to start trimming rates.

“Even with a large step down to below 5.5%, inflation merely settles back into the upper half of the RBI’s 4+/-2% inflation target,” Mizuho’s head of economics and strategy Vishnu Varathan wrote in a daily note. He expects that the print would only provide the country’s central bank with the “comfort to hold, not cut” rates, as well as retain a “mild hawkish bias.”

The Reserve Bank of India last week kept its interest rates steady at 6.5%.

—Lee Ying Shan

A bumper crop of companies made their initial public offerings this year, but many of them have since fallen short of their IPO price.

Year to date, 88 companies have debuted on the public markets, up 37.5% from this point a year ago. However, 76% of these stocks are trading below their IPO price. That includes sandals manufacturer Birkenstock, which had an IPO price of $46 a share, but ended up closing Wednesday’s trading at $40.20, a 12.6% decline.

Kenvue and Instacart are also among the stocks trading below their offering price. Kenvue has tumbled 11% since it started trading, while Instacart is off nearly 17% since its debut.

–Darla Mercado, Gina Francolla

Defense stocks have jumped this week following the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war, with the iShares U.S. Aerospace and Defense ETF rising 5.8% week to date. Nonetheless, Capital Wealth Planning chief investment officer Kevin Simpson has sold off some of his Lockheed Martin shares as a result of the strength — noting that he remains bearish on the defense sector overall.

“We’ve been selling Lockheed since September for relative underperformance. That’s how lousy this sector and the stock has been,” Simpson told CNBC’s “Closing Bell” on Wednesday.

Simpson added that he is selling the stock on account of its underperformance compared to its relative price movement.

Reducing his exposure to the defense company “speaks nothing to what happened over the weekend; [it] speaks more to the fact that I think there’s dysfunction in Washington, and it’s going to take some time for them to get maybe their act together to do what we would all hope,” said Simpson.

— Hakyung Kim

Check out the companies making headlines in extended trading.

Victoria’s Secret & Company — Shares rose 1.1% after the company’s third-quarter guidance came in stronger than expected. The company narrowed its forecasts for adjusted net and operating losses.

Microsoft — The tech company dipped 0.5%on reports that the Internal Revenue Service is seeking an additional $28.9 billion in taxes from the company. Microsoft said it would contest the claims and will take the issue to court if necessary.

Neogen — Shares of the food safety company gained nearly 4% after chief financial officer David Naemura purchased 10,000 shares, according to an SEC filing.

— Hakyung Kim

U.S. stock futures opened slightly higher Thursday night.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gained 38 points, or 0.1%.

Futures tied to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 also rose 0.1%.

— Hakyung Kim