The 3 most important things we’re watching in the stock market this coming week
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The major averages rallied back this week, with the S & P 500 closing 1.8% higher, the Dow Jones Industrial edging up 0.3% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq advancing more than 3% on the week. The gains came despite a slightly hotter-than-expected consumer price index release on Thursday. The headline index came in at 3.4% versus 3.2% expected, and the core index registered a 3.9% year-over-year advance versus expectations for a 3.8% rise. As noted in our analysis , we aren’t overly concerned because at the core index level — which strips out volatile food and energy prices and is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation — the trend continues to be disinflation. In addition, we are also seeing continued disinflation in the shelter index, the largest pain point on inflation, exerting upward pressure on prices. On Friday, the producer price index came in below expectations, potentially signaling further CPI disinflation in the months to come. Rises in the PPI can eventually lead to increases in CPI as companies look to pass through higher costs. Finally, we kicked off fourth-quarter earnings season. Club name Wells Fargo reported on Friday and though the results were a bit noisy , we found them to be better-than-expected once adjusting for one-time expense items. Still, shares of Wells Fargo were down more than 3% as the bank warned net interest income (NII) for 2024 may come in lower year over year. Next week brings a couple key economic updates along with a ramp up of earnings releases. Within the Club, we’ll hear from Morgan Stanley on Tuesday before the opening bell. Markets are closed Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. 1. Consumer health. Economists are expecting to see a seasonally adjusted 0.4% monthly advance for December retail sales, released on Wednesday. The report doesn’t carry as much weight as the CPI or personal spending reports, but it will give some more detail on how the consumer is holding up and where she is spending. It’s important: Private consumption represents nearly 70% of GDP. 2. Housing inflation. As discussed in the CPI analysis , housing is a key source of sticky inflation. As a result, December reports for housing starts (Thursday) and existing home sales (Friday) will be closely monitored for clues as the future path of home prices. Aside from the price data, supply levels will be key as a supply shortage has been a major factor serving to prop up home prices. 3. Morgan Stanley reports. It wasn’t a great showing last time out, as Morgan Stanley’s third-quarter results in the investment banking and wealth management units came in weaker than Street estimates. Net new assets gathering in the quarter was also a disappointment. We’re looking for a rebound when the company reports Tuesday, including signs that the pressure in wealth management from clients seeking out higher-yielding alternatives — a key source of the net interest income weakness last quarter — is abating. Wall Street is also expecting institutional securities revenue to be up on a year-over-year basis for the first time since the third quarter of 2021. Outside of the numbers, we’re interested to hear what management is seeing on the deal front as a rebound in initial public offerings and merger activity will be an important driver of any further upside in 2024. Monday, January 15 Markets close for Martin Luther King Jr. Day Tuesday, January 16 Before the bell: Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS), Applied Digital Corporation (APLD), PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. (PNC), Mercantile Bank Corporation (MBWM), FB Financial Corporation (FBK), Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (GNTY) After the bell: Interactive Brokers Group Inc (IBKR), Calavo Growers Inc. (CVGW), Hancock Whitney Corporation (HWC), Progress Software Corp. (PRGS), Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc (PNFP), Fulton Financial Corp. (FULT) Wednesday, January 17 8:30 a.m. ET: Retail Sales Before the bell: Charles Schwab Corp. (SCHW), Prologis, Inc. (PLD), U.S. Bancorp (USB), Citizens Financial Group Inc (CFG) After the bell: Alcoa, Inc. (AA), Discover Financial Services (DFS), Wintrust Financial Corp. (WTFC), Kinder Morgan, Inc. (KMI), Synovus Financial Corp. (SNV), H.B. Fuller Company (FUL), NVE Corp. (NVEC) Thursday, January 18 8:30 a.m. ET: Housing Starts 8:30 a.m. ET: Initial jobless claims Before the bell: Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. (TCBI), Fastenal Co. (FAST), Truist Financial Corporation (TFC), M & T Bank Corp (MTB), First Horizon National Corp (FHN), KeyCorp (KEY), Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS), Home BancShares Inc. (HOMB), Insteel Industries Inc. (IIIN), WNS Holdings Limited (WNS) After the bell: PPG Industries, Inc. (PPG), J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. (JBHT), Bank OZK (OZK), Banner Corporation (BANR), F.N.B. Corporation (FNB), OceanFirst Financial Corp. (OCFC), Independent Bank Corp. (INDB), Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp. (MCB), Aspen Group, Inc. (ASPU) Friday, January 19 10:00 a.m. ET: Existing Home Sales Before the bell: SLB (SLB), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), Ally Financial (ALLY), Huntington Bancshares Incorporated (HBAN), Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV), Comerica, Inc. (CMA), State Street Corp. (STT), Regions Financial Corporation (RF) (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
The Morgan Stanley headquarters is seen in New York City on Jan. 17, 2023.
Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images
The major averages rallied back this week, with the S&P 500 closing 1.8% higher, the Dow Jones Industrial edging up 0.3% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq advancing more than 3% on the week.
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