Nvidia Stock Falls. Don’t Bank on an Earnings Surprise This Time.

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Nvidia shares were dropping Tuesday. The market looks like it’s taking a cautious approach ahead of the chip maker’s earnings upcoming report.

Nvidia shares were down 5.1% at $689.29 in early trading, making it the worst performer in the S&P 500. If it holds, that would be its largest one-day percentage fall since since May 2023.

Nvidia
shares closed down 0.1% at $726.13 on Friday, ahead of the Presidents Day holiday. The company will report its January-quarter earnings after the market close on Wednesday.

The stock garnered another price upgrade this week as
HSBC
analyst Frank Lee raised his target price to $835 from $800 and maintained a Buy rating, although he played down expectations for an earnings bump. 

“We believe overall market expectations have risen significantly as consensus earnings are now approaching our forecasts. Hence, we see limited room for further earnings upside in 2024 relative to the sales and earnings surprise that we saw in 2023,” wrote Lee in a research note on Monday. 

However, Lee said he was confident Nvidia would benefit in the longer term from the company’s expansion into markets such as central processing units. 

Other chip maker stocks were mixed.
Advanced Micro Devices
was down 4.1% in early trading and
Intel
was up 1.4%. The Biden administration held talks to award more than $10 billion in subsidies to Intel, Bloomberg reported on Friday citing people familiar with the matter.

One issue that Nvidia’s management is likely to face questions about during its earnings call is competition from other companies such as AMD, especially as the market looks for chips that can perform inference —producing results or answers from AI systems—in addition to training tasks.

“As Inference workloads continue to come into focus, we would
expect more concerns on pricing given AMD’s positioning… We would note that early feedback from supply chain participants on Nvidia’s GH200 CPUGPU hybrid system has been positive with respect to adoption as an Inference platform,” wrote Stifel analyst Ruben Roy in a research note on Tuesday.

Roy kept a Buy rating on Nvidia stock with an $865 target price.

Nvidia shares have risen 47% this year so far through Friday’s close. That compares with a 4.9% rise for the
S&P 500
index and a 5.1% gain in the
Nasdaq Composite
Index.

Write to Adam Clark at [email protected]

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