Opinion: The stock market is trying to break out — but the bulls can’t catch a break

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The S&P 500 Index

SPX fell back on Thursday in its attempt to confirm a new upside breakout. Earlier this week, the index had closed at a new all-time high for two days in a row — just as it did mid-January before lapsing into a trading range, creating what was a false upside breakout. Right now, not every market indicator is in agreement, but many of them are, so we are conditionally taking a new “core” long position.

A close below 6,100 would raise the possibility of a false breakout, but there is now support near 6,000. The S&P 500 has major support at the lower edge of the previous trading range, in the 5,870 area.

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