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Nato has warned that Russia is withholding vital data needed for scientists to model the scale and effects of climate change from the Arctic, a strategically important region that is the fastest warming part of the world, as part of a wider misinformation campaign being waged against the West.
“They are withholding some of the important information that is needed for the [climate] reporting,” a senior Nato official told the Financial Times.
A network of 95 field bases gather statistics on the Arctic but 21 of those bases are “on pause”, according to the International Network for Terrestrial Research and Monitoring in the Arctic. Russia first stopped sharing data when Moscow invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
“Without that information, the climate modelling isn’t going to be as effective as it can be and it is exactly [that] modelling that forms the basis of political decision makers when they are themselves working out how to sort out the problem and how to do the emission reduction,” the official said. “It’s a quite nasty game where climate is now hostage also in this relationship.”
Nato officials have argued that Russia, a major oil and gas producer, stands to lose as western economies steadily move away from burning fossil fuels for energy. Moscow is pursuing a widescale disinformation campaign against the benefits of decarbonisation, the military alliance has warned.
The melting of Arctic Sea ice could also open up new routes for the Russian naval fleet, which Moscow has sought to benefit from by making multibillion-dollar investments into ice breakers and frigates aimed at protecting parts of its nuclear arsenal on the Kola Peninsula near Finland.
“Melting Arctic conditions will present the alliance with new opportunities but also vulnerability if left unchecked,” Nato said in a report in July.
Countries across the world submit weather and climate data to various subnational and global bodies, such as the World Meteorological Organization, which is used by scientists to compile the landmark reports of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the body charged with the world’s most comprehensive scientific analysis of global warming.
The Arctic is described as the Earth’s refrigerator. But it is estimated to be warming at least three times the global annual average as the ice and snow, which reflect the sun’s rays, melt and leave behind darker ground, making the heating effect more pronounced.
Scientists are also concerned that the release of carbon dioxide and methane from melting permafrost might cause the effects of climate change to spiral, and that increased wildfires in the Arctic in the warmer and drier conditions will cause deeper and more rapid thawing.
Celeste Saulo, head of the World Meteorological Organization, confirmed earlier this year that Russia was sharing some but not all data with the group in the wake of the Ukraine war. “There is a big conflict, it is not easy,” she said.
“We try to deliver the message that it’s for the global benefits, not about the individual benefit. But we all know that there are sensitivities in terms of data sharing,” she said.
Nato’s criticism of Russia comes ahead of the UN COP29 summit in Baku, where almost 200 countries are due to meet to discuss a global response to climate change.
Russia has been accused by western countries of being obstructive in those international climate negotiations, particularly on the subject of the phase out of fossil fuels, which it has said is irresponsible and will contribute to an energy crisis.
Additional reporting by Henry Foy in Brussels
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