Autodesk Stock Falls as Wall Street Notes ‘Complicated’ Guidance

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Autodesk
stock was pointing lower on Wednesday, and analysts say guidance is to blame.

Shares of
Autodesk
(ticker: ADSK), a provider of software for computer-assisted design, were off 6.6% to $203.25 in premarket trading.

When the company posted fiscal third-quarter results on Tuesday, it said it expects fourth-quarter revenue between $1.42 billion to $1.44 billion, while Wall Street called for $1.43 billion. Adjusted earnings are forecast between $1.91 and $1.97, below analysts’ estimate of $2.01. The company lifted its outlook for fiscal year 2024—which ends Jan. 31—on revenue, adjusted earnings, and free cash flow.

Management said it expects fiscal year 2025 revenue to increase about 9% or more, roughly in line with the year prior and below consensus. In a Wednesday report,
Mizuho
Securities analyst Matthew Broome wrote that “this subdued guide is largely reflective of a more challenging operating environment.” Mizuho maintained its Neutral rating, slashed its price target to $200 from $220, and revised estimates.

Citi
analyst Tyler Radke called the 2025 guidance “complicated,” but presented reason for optimism. “With a high single-digit growth target we believe there could be room for upside, especially if macro trends stabilize or recover,” he wrote Wednesday. Citi reiterated its Buy rating, cut its price target to $243 from $261, and lifted estimates.

William Blair analysts Dylan Becker and Faith Brunner were feeling confident about what
Autodesk
has to offer.

“The continued healthy pipeline activity evidenced throughout the duration of the year highlights both the strategic importance of the company’s tools and resiliency of its diversified end market exposure, which remains well positioned to support several years of digitization momentum,” they said. They rate shares Outperform.

For its fiscal third quarter, the company posted better-than-expected revenue and earnings.

Write to Emily Dattilo at [email protected]

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