Signs of stabilisation in China’s economy should provide some support to commodity markets. Nevertheless, the adjustment to a lower growth profile will ultimately cap the upside, strategists at ANZ Bank report.
Upside limitations
Expectations of a soft landing in China are providing some hope for commodity markets. This should boost sentiment and lead to stronger demand that will extend the recent rally into year-end.
However, there are some upside limits. China’s structural issues – worsening demographics, lack of productivity improvement and trade tension – remain. Nevertheless, a stabilisation in its economic activity should be a welcome relief for commodity markets, and we expect them to track higher in Q4.
Ultimately, the strength of the rally will be determined by the broader macro backdrop.
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