- EUR/GBP depreciates after the release of the UK employment report.
- The UK ILO Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.3% in the three months to October, as expected.
- ECB President Lagarde indicated that the central bank is prepared to cut rates further if disinflation remains on track.
EUR/GBP extends its losses for the second successive session, trading around 0.8260 during the early European hours on Tuesday. The EUR/GBP cross faces challenges as the Pound Sterling (GBP) recovers its losses after the release of UK jobs data.
The UK ILO Unemployment Rate stayed unchanged at 4.3% in the three months to October, the data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Tuesday. The reading matched the market estimate of 4.3% in the reported period. Meanwhile, Employment Change reported the number of employed individuals rose by 173,000, against the previous 253,000 increase. Moreover, Claimant Count Change reported 0.3K jobless benefits claims for November, drastically lower than the expected 28.2K.
Traders will shift their focus toward the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures on Wednesday, ahead of the Bank of England’s (BoE) rate decision on Thursday. The BoE is widely expected to maintain interest rates, with an anticipated eight-to-one vote split, as one notably dovish policymaker is likely to support a rate cut.
On Monday, ECB President Christine Lagarde spoke at the Annual Economics Conference, indicating that the ECB is prepared to cut rates further if incoming data confirm that disinflation remains on track. Lagarde also signaled a shift in policy stance, noting that the previous bias toward maintaining “sufficiently restrictive” rates is no longer warranted.
Data showed on Monday that Eurozone PMI figures exceeded expectations in December; however, Services PMI surveys remain in contraction territory amid growing concerns about a deepening economic slowdown in Europe, which continues to weigh on investor and business sentiment. Traders are expected to focus on mid-tier German data, including December’s Business Climate and Current Assessment reports from the CESifo Group.
Employment FAQs
Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.
The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
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