- EUR/USD higher for Thursday, but fighting for gains.
- Risk appetite is back on the cards as investors celebrate the end of Fed rate hikes.
- US NFP Friday still on the cards to close out the week.
The EUR/USD caught some lift for Thursday, rising as broader markets continue to climb, fueled by a dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday that sees investors flocking to risk assets in celebration of the (perhaps premature) perceived end of the Fed’s rate hike cycle.
Rate cut eagerness may prove to be short-lived despite the Fed’s softly dovish tone on Wednesday. Money markets are currently expecting the beginning of a rate cut cycle for the Fed beginning sometime in the back half of 2024, but that’s still a long way away.
The European Unemployment Rate figures are due early on in the Friday trading session, but overall markets are set to be entirely focused on the US’ Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) for October, slated for tomorrow’s US trading session.
The Fed’s pause can see further demand for carry – ING
Investors, eager to get a rate cut cycle underway, are forecasting a decline in headline US jobs creation growth, forecast to print at 180K compared to the previous month’s 336K.
A miss-or-match for the headline NFP figure could see the US Dollar pare losses as investors pile back into the safe haven, while a beat for US jobs reporting could see traders get a splash of cold water on adjusting interest rate forecasts.
EUR/USD Technical Outlook
Despite Thursday’s risk-on rally, The EUR/USD continues to trade near familiar territory on the daily candlesticks, testing technical resistance to the upside from the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).
The pair got knocked back from the 1.0650 handle mid-Thursday at the outset of the US trading window, and Euro bulls look set to dig their heels in and find a rebound point from the day’s low near 1.0566.
EUR/USD Daily Chart
EUR/USD Technical Levels
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