- Gold price edges higher in Wednesday’s early Asian session.
- Trade war concerns among investors boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the Gold price.
- Investors brace for The US January New Home Sales and Fedspeak later on Wednesday.
The Gold price (XAU/USD) recovers some lost ground after reaching a one-week low in the previous session. The uncertainty and ongoing fears of instability around US President Donald Trump’s tariff plans provide some support to the yellow metal, a traditional safe-haven asset.
Nonetheless, analysts believe that Trump’s plans for higher tariffs have raised inflation worries at the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which might convince the US central bank to keep interest rates higher for longer. This, in turn, might cap the upside for the precious metal as higher interest rates tarnish non-yielding gold’s appeal.
The US New Home Sales for January will be released later on Wednesday. Also, the Fed officials, including Raphael Bostic and Thomas Barkin are set to speak on the same day. On Friday, all eyes will be on the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) – Price Index for January.
Gold price gains momemtum as trade war fears persist
- Trump signed another Executive Order late Tuesday, signaling for the US Commerce Department to launch an official “probe” into Copper markets.
- Trump stated late Monday that tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports were “on time and on schedule” despite efforts by the countries to beef up border security and halt the flow of fentanyl into the US ahead of a March 4 deadline, per Reuters,
- The US consumer confidence fell the most since August 2021, declining to 98.3 in February versus 105.3 prior, according to the Conference Board.
- Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said late Tuesday that he will follow a wait-and-see approach regarding central bank interest rate policy until it is clear inflation is returning to the Fed’s 2% goal.
- Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan stated that it would be appropriate in the medium term for the Fed to buy more shorter-term securities than longer-term ones so that its portfolio can more quickly mirror the composition of Treasury issuance, per Bloomberg.
Gold price keeps the bullish tone despite consolidation in the shorter term
Gold price edges higher on the day. In the near term, the precious metal remains capped in the narrow trading range. However, the bullish outlook of the Gold price remains intact on the daily chart, with the price holding above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Furthermore, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands above the midline near 64.0, indicating that the path of least resistance is to the upside.
The all-time high of $2,957 appears to be a tough nut to crack for the Gold bulls. An upside break from the mentioned level could set off a move to the next bullish levels at $2,980, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band, en route to the $3,000 psychological level.
In the bearish case, the low of February 25 at $2,888 acts as an initial support level for the yellow metal. Extended losses could pave the way to $2,795, the lower limit of the Bollinger Band. The key contention level to watch is $2,718, the 100-day EMA.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off” refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
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