Gold rose to a new record high of $2,200 after the Fed meeting. Strategists at Commerzbank analyze the yellow metal’s outlook.
The rally on the Gold market is likely to be over for the time being
Unless US economic and inflation data disappoint across the board in the coming weeks and continue to push down US interest rate expectations, the rally should now begin to run out of steam.
ETF investors also appear to be starting to rethink their position: For the past few days, significant inflows have been recorded again for the first time since last autumn. On the other hand, short-term oriented financial investors were already very optimistic in the previous week. If they have increased their long positions even further in the course of the recent rise, there is a risk of a setback.
China’s presumably lower Gold imports from Hong Kong meanwhile should not be taken too seriously, nor should the recently disappointing Swiss gold exports in February. After all, they follow high imports in January and are presumably distorted by the New Year celebrations.
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