- Gold price scales higher for the fourth straight day and touches a fresh all-time peak on Friday.
- Major central banks remain in rate-cut mode and continue to benefit the non-yielding XAU/USD.
- Middle East tensions and the US political uncertainty provide an additional boost to the commodity.
Gold price (XAU/USD) climbs above the $2,700 mark, hitting a fresh record high on Friday amid the expected interest rate cuts by major central banks and easing monetary policy environment. Moreover, persistent geopolitical risks stemming from the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, along with the uncertainty surrounding the US Presidential election, seem to stimulate demand for the safe-haven precious metal.
The supporting factors, to a larger extent, offset the recent US Dollar (USD) rally to its highest level since August, bolstered by the growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will proceed with modest rate cuts. A stronger buck tends to undermine demand for USD-denominated commodities, including the Gold price, which remains on track to register strong weekly gains and seems poised to appreciate further.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price continues to draw support from a combination of factors
- On Thursday, the European Central Bank decided to lower interest rates for the third time this year – marking the first back-to-back rate cut in 13 years – and eyes more cuts in the wake of the worsening economic outlook.
- The Federal Reserve is also anticipated to lower borrowing costs further after a jumbo rate reduction in September, while weak inflation data from the UK solidified bets for a more aggressive easing by the Bank of England.
- Meanwhile, the tight race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris adds a layer of uncertainty, which, along with the risk of a further escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, lift the Gold price to a fresh all-time high.
- The Israeli military confirmed that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar had been killed on Wednesday after a “year-long pursuit”, while the Iran-backed Hezbollah announced a new and escalating phase in its war with Israel.
- Data published by the US Census Bureau on Thursday showed that Retail Sales increased by 0.4% in September, surpassing market expectations for a 0.3% monthly gain and a 0.1% rise recorded in the previous month.
- Separately, the US Labor Department reported that Initial Jobless Claims, after hitting the highest level in more than a year, fell to 241K in the week that ended October 12 against the anticipated reading of 260 K.
- Furthermore, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s manufacturing sector survey revealed that the business conditions index rose from 1.7 to 10.3 in October, beating consensus estimates by a wide margin.
- The data suggested that the economy remains on solid footing and reaffirmed bets for a less aggressive Fed policy easing, lifting the US bond yields and the US Dollar, albeit doing little to dent demand for the XAU/USD.
- Traders now look to the US housing market data – Building Permits and Housing Starts – and Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s scheduled speech to grab short-term opportunities on the last day of the week.
Technical Outlook: Gold price seems poised to appreciate further, breakout above $2,700 in play
From a technical perspective, a sustained move beyond the $2,700 mark could be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. This, along with the fact that oscillators on the daily chart are holding in positive territory and are still away from being in the overbought zone, suggests that the path of least resistance for the Gold price is to the upside.
On the flip side, any meaningful corrective slide now seems to find decent support near the $2,662-2,660 horizontal zone ahead of the $2,647-2,646 area. A convincing break below the latter might prompt some technical selling and drag the Gold price to the $2,630 intermediate support en route to the $2,600 neighborhood.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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