- Gold price edges higher on Tuesday, albeit lacking strong follow-through buying.
- The Fed’s hawkish shift acts as a tailwind for the USD and caps the precious metal.
- Geopolitical tensions and trade war fears should support the safe-haven XAU/USD.
Gold price (XAU/USD) builds on its steady Asian session ascent and climbs to a fresh daily peak, around the $2,620 area in the last hour. Against the backdrop of persistent geopolitical risks and trade war fears, a modest pullback in the US Treasury bond yields offers some support to the commodity. Any meaningful appreciating move for the XAU/USD, however, seems elusive in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish shift.
In fact, the Fed last week signaled that it would slow the pace of interest rate cuts in 2025. This assists the US Dollar (USD) to stand firm near a two-year high and should act as a tailwind for the US bond yields, which should cap gains for the non-yielding yellow metal. This, in turn, warrants caution before positioning for the resumption of a modest recovery from a one-month low touched last week amid relatively thin trading volumes.
Gold price is supported by haven flows, retreating US bond yields
- The Federal Reserve last week tempered the outlook for further rate cuts in 2025, marking a turning point in its monetary policy and underscoring uncertainties surrounding potential policy changes under the incoming Trump administration.
- The yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond shot to its highest level since May on Monday and the US Dollar stood firm near a two-year peak touched last week, which should cap the upside for the non-yielding Gold price.
- The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said this Tuesday that sirens were sounded in the centre and south of Israel and that it had intercepted a projectile fired from Yemen as Israeli forces continued their attacks in besieged northern Gaza.
- Russian forces captured two villages in Ukraine and are making steady progress in the Donetsk area. US President-elect Donald Trump urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to consider a ceasefire and abandon Russian-occupied territories.
- Traders now look forward to the release of the Richmond Manufacturing Index, which, along with the US bond yields, will influence the USD and provide some impetus amid a relatively thin liquidity on Christmas Eve.
Gold price could attract sellers near ascending trend channel barrier
From a technical perspective, the recent recovery from a one-month low, along an ascending channel, constitutes the formation of a bearish flag pattern on hourly charts. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart remain in negative territory, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the Gold price is downward. That said, it will still be prudent to wait for a convincing break below the channel support, currently pegged around the $2,605-$2,600 area, before positioning for any further depreciating move.
The subsequent downfall could drag the Gold price back towards the monthly trough, around the $2,583 region touched last week. Some follow-through selling will be seen as a fresh trigger for bears and set the stage for a slide towards the November monthly swing low, around the $2,537-$2,536 area en route to the $2,500 psychological mark.
On the flip side, the $2,633-$2,634 zone, or a multi-day top touched on Monday, which nears the top boundary of the ascending channel, might continue to act as an immediate strong barrier. A sustained strength beyond might prompt some short-covering and lift the Gold price to the $2,654-$2,655 region. The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which if cleared decisively will negate the near-term negative bias and pave the way for additional gains towards reclaiming the $2,700 round figure.
Read the full article here