- The Japanese Yen attracts some sellers on Wednesday, though the downside seems limited.
- The divergent BoJ-Fed expectations should cap USD/JPY amid subdued USD price action.
- Traders might also opt to wait for the Tokyo CPI and the US PCE Price Index, due on Friday.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues losing ground through the Asian session on Wednesday, which, along with the emergence of some US Dollar (USD) dip-buying, lifts the USD/JPY pair further beyond the mid-150.00s. Data released earlier today showed that Japan’s Service Producer Price Index (PPI) eased to the 3.0% YoY rate in February. Adding to this, a generally positive tone around the equity markets undermines the safe-haven JPY.
Any meaningful JPY depreciation, however, seems elusive in the wake of the growing acceptance that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue raising interest rates. In contrast, the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained its forecast for two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2025, which might cap the USD. Furthermore, the narrowing of the rate differential between Japan and the US could support the lower-yielding JPY and keep a lid on the USD/JPY pair.
Japanese Yen is weighed down by positive risk tone and renwed USD buying
- The Bank of Japan reported earlier this Wednesday that the Services Producer Price Index (PPI) – a leading indicator of Japan’s service-sector inflation – rose 3.0% from a year earlier in February. The reading was slightly below the 3.1% increase in January. On a monthly basis, the index remained flat during the reported month after falling 0.5% in January.
- Moreover, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that the central bank will continue to raise interest rates if economic and price developments move in line with forecasts made in the quarterly outlook report. Adding to this, significant wage hikes for the third consecutive year keep alive expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Japanese central bank.
- In contrast, the Federal Reserve signaled last week that it would deliver two 25-basis-point interest rate cuts by the end of this year. Meanwhile, the Fed gave a bump higher to its inflation projection, though it revised the growth outlook downward amid the growing uncertainty over the impact of US President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies.
- Trump is expected to announce so-called retaliatory tariffs – that offset levies on US goods and are set to take effect on April 2 – on about 15 major US trading partners. Furthermore, Trump imposed a secondary tariff on Venezuela and said that any country that buys oil or gas from Venezuela would face a 25% tariff when trading with the US.
- The increasing pessimism about the US economy led to a sharp downturn in the US Consumer Confidence, which dropped for a fourth straight month in March. The Conference Board’s survey further revealed that the Expectations Index fell to 65.2, or the lowest level in 12 years and well below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead.
- This, in turn, prompted a modest US Dollar pullback from a nearly three-week high touched on Tuesday and weighed heavily on the USD/JPY pair. The USD bulls failed to gain any respite from Fed Governor Adriana Kugler’s hawkish remarks, saying that the progress toward returning inflation to the 2% target has slowed since last summer.
- Several Fed officials are set to speak in the coming days and will play a key role in influencing the USD price dynamics. In the meantime, traders will look to Wednesday’s release of US Durable Goods Orders for short-term impetus. The focus, however, remains on the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on Friday.
USD/JPY needs to find acceptance above 151.00 for bulls to retain control
From a technical perspective, this week’s breakout above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart was seen as a key trigger for bullish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining positive traction and suggest that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair is to the upside. However, the overnight failure ahead of the 151.00 mark warrants some caution. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for sustained strength and acceptance above the said handle before positioning for an extension of the recent recovery from a multi-month low. The subsequent move-up could lift spot prices beyond the monthly top, around the 151.30 area, towards the 152.00 round figure.
On the flip side, the 149.55 area, or the overnight swing low, now seems to protect the immediate downside, below which the USD/JPY pair could slide to the 149.00 mark en route to the 148.75-148.70 support. The latter coincides with the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, which if broken might shift the bias in favor of bearish traders. Spot prices might then accelerate the fall towards the 148.00 round figure and slide further towards the 147.35-147.30 region before eventually dropping below the 147.00 mark, towards the 146.55-146.50 area, or the multi-month low touched on March 11.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
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