- NZD/USD peaked at a daily high of 0.6015 and then plummeted to 0.5940.
- US NFPs from August showed a mixed picture, while the Manufacturing PMIs from the same month came in better than expected.
- The USD holds its ground despite investors betting on lower odds of a last hike by the Fed this cycle.
At the end of the week, the USD measured by the DXY index tallies daily gains after volatility seen in the markets after the release of August Nonfarm Payrolls and ISM PMI manufacturing figures. Still, the NZD/USD pair will record a weekly 0.70% increase. No relevant data was released on the Kiwi’s side.
The Nonfarm Payrolls from the US from August came a tick higher than expected at 187,000 vs. the 170,000 expected and from its previous downwardly revised 157,000. As per the Average Hourly Earning, wages increased by 0.2% (MoM), lower than the 0.3% expected, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 3.8%. Other data showed that the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported higher than anticipated PMIs, with the manufacturing index at 47.6, higher than the 47 expected. The Employment index also came strong at 48.5 but remains in contraction territory.
The USD saw volatility against its rivals as the mixed NFP report initially fuelled a sell-off, but after the ISM PMI, the Greenback somewhat recovered. The US Treasury yields saw the same movement, hinting that the markets are betting on a less aggressive Fed and investors hoping the tightening cycle ends as the labour market hinted at some softness. Focus now shifts to September 13, when the US will release the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, which will be necessary for the next Fed decision expectations.
NZD/USD Levels to watch
The daily chart analysis indicates a neutral to a bearish outlook for NZD/USD, as the bears show signs of taking control but still face challenges ahead. Having turned flat in negative territory, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests a potential market equilibrium with balanced selling and buying pressure. At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence (MACD) lays out stagnant green bars. On the other hand, the pair is below the 20,100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), suggesting that the bears are firmly in control of the bigger picture.
Support levels:0.5930, 0.5900, 0.5880.
Resistance levels: 0.5967 (20-day SMA), 0.5980, 0.6000.
NZD/USD Daily Chart
Read the full article here