Economists at Commerzbank analyze Kiwi’s outlook ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) monetary policy meeting.
Too early for an RBNZ U-turn?
It is consensus that New Zealand’s central bank (RBNZ) will keep its key rate unchanged at 5.50%. Anything else would be a major surprise.
According to the RBNZ, there is the risk that in the medium run, weaker global and Chinese growth will have negative effects on commodity prices and New Zealand’s export revenue. As soon as discernible evidence of that emerges, the RBNZ might move towards rate cuts.
The latest economic data from New Zealand and China provided reason for cautious optimism though. I therefore believe that it is still a little early to find any evidence of rate cuts at this meeting. That means NZD should be able to maintain its positive performance for now, above all against the struggling Dollar.
See – RBNZ Preview: Forecasts from seven major banks, pushing back against rate cuts
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