- The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut the OCR by 25 basis points.
- Australian core inflation eased in the final quarter of 2024 but remained above the RBA’s target.
- The Australian Dollar consolidates gains against its American rival ahead of the announcement.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will announce its first monetary policy decision of 2025 on Tuesday, and market participants anticipate the Board will cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps).
Since hiking the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 4.35% in November 2023, the RBA has maintained it steady at this level, as inflation has remained stubbornly high. As a result, pressure on households and businesses has become a significant concern, with sluggish economic growth taking its toll on policymakers’ decisions.
Will this be the first of multiple interest rate cuts in Australia?
Indeed, inflation in Australia has given signs of improvement in December, boosting the odds for an interest rate cut in February.
The latest quarterly Consumer Price Index (CPI) released showed that inflation rose by less than anticipated in the final quarter of 2024. The RBA’s preferred inflation gauge, the Trimmed Mean CPI, was up 0.5% in the quarter, below the anticipated 0.6%, and the annualized figure hit 3.2%, down from the previous 3.5%.
Solid employment growth, on the other hand, weighs negatively on interest rate-cut odds. Annual employment growth strengthened to 3.1% in December from 2.3% in November, the strongest rate since October 2023. Australia is expected to have added 20K new jobs in January after creating 56,3K in December. January employment data, however, will not be available until after the RBA monetary policy announcement.
Back in December, the RBA’s decision accompanying the statement showed that “some of the upside risks to inflation appear to have eased and while the level of aggregate demand still appears to be above the economy’s supply capacity, that gap continues to close.”
However, the Minutes of the meeting released two weeks afterwards included a modest change in the wording. Officials were then “gaining some confidence” that inflation was moving sustainably towards their target of between 2% and 3%.
RBA Governor Michele Bullock also noted that the Board discussed that upside inflation risks had eased but not gone away, yet an interest rate cut or hike was not on the table.
Overall, market players anticipate a rate cut, but they do not expect it will be the first of many. On the contrary, the RBA is anticipated to maintain its cautious approach to monetary easing. The current restrictive policy settings would likely be unwound at a slow pace.
How will the Reserve Bank of Australia decision impact AUD/USD?
Should the RBA announce an expected 25 bps interest rate cut, the Australian Dollar (AUD) may come under selling pressure. However, how weak the AUD could be depends on what policymakers anticipate. If the Board announces an unexpected 50 bps trim or announces more cuts coming in the upcoming meetings, it would be quite bearish for the Aussie.
On the contrary, hints at spaced interest rate cuts may push the AUD up, as it would be read as a “hawkish cut.”
RBA Governor Michele Bullock will offer a press conference after the announcement and will have to explain much if the decision diverges from expectations.
Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, says: “The AUD/USD pair peaked at 0.6373 ahead of the announcement, its highest since mid-December. The pair maintains its technically bullish stance amid broad US Dollar (USD) weakness. The Greenback trades on the back foot ever since financial markets understood US President Donald Trump’s fiscal measures pushed the Federal Reserve (Fed) into the hawkish path.”
“In fact, uncertainty over what US tariffs may mean to the Australian economy will likely be part of the RBA’s announcement,” Bednarik added.
“Technically speaking, the AUD/USD pair has scope to extend its advance towards the 0.6470 region, where the pair presents multiple intraday highs and lows from the last few months. To reach such an altitude, the pair first needs to overcome the aforementioned intraday high, which is the immediate resistance level. Interim resistance comes next at 0.6430. A dovish outcome could push the pair through the 0.6300 threshold, with additional slides exposing the 0.6230 price zone.”
Central banks FAQs
Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%.
A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing.
A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%.
Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
Economic Indicator
RBA Monetary Policy Statement
At the end of each of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) eight meetings, the RBA’s board releases a post-meeting statement explaining its policy decision. The statement may influence the volatility of the Australian Dollar (AUD) and determine a short-term positive or negative trend. A hawkish view is considered bullish for AUD, whereas a dovish view is considered bearish.
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