- US Dollar closed out a strong week and opened Monday on a soft note.
- Fed officials offer cautionary advice concerning easing cycles amidst mixed signals in the economic outlook.
- May’s PCE data will be key, as well as GDP revisions.
On Monday, the US Dollar, as portrayed by the Dollar Index (DXY), declined to 105.50, following a series of gains since early May, with investors seeming to capitalize on profits ahead of a tumultuous week.
As for the US economic outlook, a mixed picture prevails with some signs of disinflation. However, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have chosen a cautious stance and have yet to fully adopt easing cycles. This guarded approach by the Fed continues to create an atmosphere of suspense regarding market expectations.
Daily digest market movers: US Dollar staying course, eyes on crucial data
- On Tuesday, investors will eye the Conference Board confidence report. Headline figures are expected to drop slightly to 100, hinting at tepid consumer spending activity.
- Moving to Thursday, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) revisions for the year are anticipated to hold steady at 1.3%.
- Friday will signify a pivotal event as the May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation data is due for release.
- Both headline and core PCE are expected to drop to 2.6% YoY from 2.7% and 2.8%, respectively, in April.
- Despite encouraging progress on inflation, multiple Fed officials, including Chair Powell, recommended that markets maintain composure and not exaggerate the implications of one or two months of favorable data.
- However, the market pins November as the most likely time frame for a cut but is expecting a 70% chance of a cut in September. Forthcoming data will prove to be instrumental in creating market bets.
DXY technical analysis: Positive trajectory maintained despite losses
The technical environment still portrays a positive layout with indicators situated in favorable territory. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50, however, it inclines downward. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) keeps constructing green bars, implying that bulls seem to be holding their grip.
Consistently, the DXY Index retains its stance above the 20, 100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). Coupling these conditions with climbing indicators, it seems that the US Dollar (USD) could witness additional gains, mainly if it holds the 20-day SMA.
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